POLLSTER ACCURACY 2024 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION National Popular Vote AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster of the US Presidential Election 2nd time in a row, both at the national level and in key swing states. Please note: margins may change with the final vote count, but the ranking is unlikely to change significantly. Once the data is final, an updated table will be posted.

A few things to note about the results in Peru: 1. Quick count indicates a very small difference. If history is a guide, it may take weeks until we know who won. 2. Rural voters are tough to poll even in exit polls; a fraction withhold their preference. 3. Rejection rates are increasingly a better benchmark for forecasting runoffs than affirmative vote intention; Keiko was leading in vote intention even as a majority declared consistently that they wouldn’t vote for her. Her favorability improved in the days ahead of the runoff but was still widely negative. Altogether, what appears to be a big surprise tonight is not all that surprising in hindsight.

El análisis completo de la última encuesta Atlas sobre la primera vuelta presidencial en Colombia, mañana en @RevistaSemana.

Hoy tuve el privilegio de reunirme con María Corina Machado, cuyos incansables esfuerzos mantienen viva la lucha del pueblo venezolano por libertad y democracia. AtlasIntel contribuirá a la recuperación y transición de Venezuela.

This is perhaps the single most negative result for Trump in the AtlasIntel poll released today. For every single item tested in this basket of goods, a majority of Americans think it costs more now than under Biden, whose presidency was also hit by an affordability crisis.