Links to access the recording and slides from our 2026 Market Outlook webinar are available here. We’d love to hear your feedback! Email us at connect@bluekurtic.com Recording: drive.google.com/file/d/1T9X… Slides: drive.google.com/file/d/1c2u…

For just the 11th time in history, the 2-year yield is at a 40-day high while the 30-year yield is at a 40-day low. This type of sharp yield curve flattening has been bullish for stocks. In every prior instance, the S&P 500 $SPX was higher four weeks later. $SPY $QQQ

Quadruple Witching is today, and that's another seasonal headwind for stocks for the next week. Since 2000, the week following June Quadruple Witching has seen the S&P 500 finish higher less than one-third of the time. $SPX $SPY

Kevin Warsh has wrapped up his first FOMC press conference as Fed Chair. The overall tone was relatively hawkish than many expected given Warsh's recent dovish comments.

On Kevin Warsh 's first FOMC day as Fed Chair, S&P 500 fell 1.2%, extending the streak to four negative first fed meeting days for new Chairs. It marks only the third 1% decline on a first fed meeting day, and the largest drop since Greenspan in 1987. $SPX $SPY

Very interesting. Kevin Warsh said the Fed' s remit remains price stability and maximum employment, but the FOMC statement emphasized only price stability.

The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, as expected. The bigger surprise was the unanimous 12-0 vote. The dot plot however, leaned hawkish: • 9 officials see rate hikes in 2026 • 8 see no change • Only 1 projects a 25 bps cut S&P 500 is currently trading lower. #FOMC

Markets will be closed Friday in observance of Juneteenth, and a weak seasonality is lining up with Kevin Warsh 's first FOMC press conference as Fed Chair. Since 2000, week after Juneteenth has been positive just 27% of the time for the S&P 500 and 37% for the Nasdaq 100.

As always an interesting collection of charts from @TheChartReport. A good one from @Bluekurtic (great follow on X) noting that if SPX closes positive today it will be the first for a Fed chair in his first meeting since Volcker nearly 50 years ago. The good news is other than Powell (who had the pleasure of starting his tenure with Volmaggedon and a tariff barrage, not helped by a quick rate hike) though things generally improved over the next week. The bad news is two and three months out things didn't go as well (although the last two bucked that trend).

Ahead of today's FOMC press conference, FedWatch data implies over 50% chance of rate hike by year end. We expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to strike a dovish tone, which could lower those rate hike odds. If so, that may provide an additional tailwind for the S&P 500. #FOMC

Tomorrow is Kevin Warsh 's first FOMC press conference as Fed Chair. On last three press conference days since start of the U.S.-Iran war, the S&P 500 has closed lower. But with a peace deal on table and hopes that Warsh maintains a dovish tone, this time could be different.

Tomorrow is Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting day as Fed Chair. In each of the last four instances of a Fed Chair's first FOMC meeting, the S&P 500 finished lower on the day. Let's see if Warsh can break a 40-year curse. Also bulls, do not look at the avg 3 month performance.

Since the start of U.S.-Iran conflict, gold has fallen over 20%. Yet central banks remain as bullish as ever, with a record 45% planning to increase gold reserves over next year. Dovish Warsh at FOMC, easing inflation, and strong central bank demand could reignite gold rally.

Bulls are going to like this one. This is the 28th 1% gap at the open during this bull market. More than 50% of these gaps were not filled. Even better, $SPY has been positive over 80% of the time 5 days later. 3 weeks later, it was positive in 25 of the previous 27 cases.

This one is for both bulls & bears. For first time in over 26 years, Nasdaq 100 gained over 7% in 3 day winning streak while closing within 5% of ATH. For bulls: $NDX was higher 3 days later in 6 of 7 cases. For bears: Such streaks only occurred leading to dot com bubble. $QQQ

For only the 10th time since 2006, the S&P 500 $SPX and Nasdaq 100 $NDX both gapped up more than 1% while USO gapped down over 2% at the open. The move was usually followed by short term strength. Three weeks later, $SPY was positive 8 of 9 times with a median gain of 4.6%.