Breaking down and making sense of global capital markets. Pre-order my new book Surplus, out Nov 3.
Joined May 2009
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May 11
My new book Surplus: The History of Too Much and the End of Economic Primacy is available for pre-order on Amazon. Out November 3, 2026 from Prometheus Books (@prometheusbks).
Pre-order: a.co/d/01LoPCWw
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Marc Chandler retweeted
Week Ahead: 7 G10 Central Banks Meet, Only BOJ to Hike, Warsh Chairs First FOMC meeting, G7 Summit, and Possible US-Iran Agreement: The week ahead is important. Seven G10 central banks meet. Even though Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has been hospitalized… dlvr.it/TT1gTZ
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Jun 13
Week Ahead: BOJ to Hike, Warsh chairs first FOMC meeting, and UK byelection could set stage for formal challenge to Starmer. Although US and Iranian officials say deal is close, Polymarket odds of Strait of Hormuz open by end of July still <50%.
See marctomarket.com/2026/06/wee…
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Marc Chandler retweeted
Jun 13
Kudos to Macron for flagging key issue.
Nations don't readily subordinate domestic objectives to external considerations.
China not changing its growth model; US not controlling its fiscal recklessness; Europe slow on competitiveness.
🇨🇳🇺🇸🇪🇺 should get houses in order.
Jun 12
French President Emmanuel Macron wants the G7 summit to tackle a flood of subsidized Chinese exports disrupting global markets.
But even before leaders meet, it’s clear that credible action is one deliverable he won’t be able to land.
politico.eu/article/emmanuel…
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Marc Chandler retweeted
Jun 13
Whether one agrees or not, worth a read -- from Kai Guo and He Zhu on arguments about the extent of Chinese subsidization.
cf40research.substack.com/p/…
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Marc Chandler retweeted
Jun 12
To me, what has happened, and it still amazes me that Trade Wars are Class Wars does not mention Reagan once, is that there was a capital offensive (Reagan-Thatcher), and barriers to movement were consciously abolished. Capital flows overwhelm trade flows.
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Marc Chandler retweeted
Jun 13
Week Ahead: 7 G10 Central Banks Meet, Only BOJ to Hike, Warsh Chairs First FOMC meeting, G7 Summit, and Possible US-Iran Agreement: The week ahead is important. Seven G10 central banks meet. Even though Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has been hospitalized… marctomarket.com/2026/06/wee…
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Jun 12
The #petrodollar isn't collapsing, and the data backs that up.
I wrote about this for @barronsonline because the narrative has gotten ahead of the evidence. #SaudiArabia and its neighbors are still price-takers, not price-setters. That matters enormously for how you think about dollar dominance.
Full piece here ↓ barrons.com/articles/the-myt…
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Jun 12
What do I read? I increasingly appreciate the insight of @BaldwinRE. Latest post on Chinese overproduction and US underproduction and his criticism of arguing causality from identities.
rbaldwin.substack.com/p/did-…
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Jun 10
George Carlin had a line I keep coming back to: "we have cinnamon-flavored floss while people are starving outside."
That's the paradox I've spent years trying to understand, and it's at the heart of my new book, Surplus.
The world isn't running out of things. It's drowning in them. And that changes everything about how we think about power, trade, and economic primacy.
Full conversation with @Kathleen_Hays: kathleenhays.substack.com/p/…
Pre-order Surplus: amazon.com/Surplus-History-M…
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ICYMI
Weekly Note: $USD surges after strong jobs growth, while low intensity war still being fought in ME. ECB hike seen as nearly done deal even after Q1 GDP contracts (not just Ireland, France also contract). Despite strong jobs data, Canada on hold.
marctomarket.com/2026/06/wee…
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Marc Chandler retweeted
Week Ahead: Surging Greenback on Robust Jobs Data, while ECB Hike Seen as a Done Deal: The war in the Middle East continues to disrupt flows from the region and helps shape risk appetites. After falling by almost 14% in the last two weeks of May, July… dlvr.it/TSvhDp
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Marc Chandler retweeted
Weekly analysis drops. US jobs data sufficiently strong to spur speculation of more than 25 bp hike this year by Fed. May CPI new highs. ECB to hike despite contraction in Q1 (France and Ireland). Canada to stand pat.
marctomarket.com/2026/06/wee…
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Marc Chandler retweeted
Weekly Note: $USD surges after strong jobs growth, while low intensity war still being fought in ME. ECB hike seen as nearly done deal even after Q1 GDP contracts (not just Ireland, France also contract). Despite strong jobs data, Canada on hold.
marctomarket.com/2026/06/wee…
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Week Ahead: Surging Greenback on Robust Jobs Data, while ECB Hike Seen as a Done Deal: The war in the Middle East continues to disrupt flows from the region and helps shape risk appetites. After falling by almost 14% in the last two weeks of May, July… marctomarket.com/2026/06/wee…
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