Two days before SpaceX launches the largest IPO in history at a flat $135/share, our VC roundtable drops a scorcher: The top 1% of seed deals might actually be underpriced. Plus: the "Sequoia scam" dual-tranche controversy, tokens-for-equity deals, and whether Claude Fable 5 is a true step function. @paigefinnn @ttunguz and @michaeldowning join @alex to go deep on the state of venture ahead of record liquidity! 0:00 Tomasz Tunguz, Michael Downing & Paige Doherty join 2:07 The SpaceX IPO and the IPO window 4:22 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off! 6:30 The new bar: 10x growth (not 3x) to raise a great Series A 8:46 Net-new AI budgets 9:46 Squarespace: Turn your idea into a beautiful website! Go to squarespace.com/twist for a free trial. When you're ready to launch, use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain. 11:09 How some founders are outgrowing venture capital 11:44 The power pendulum swings back to founders 12:46 SpaceX vs. OpenAI vs. Anthropic: Which IPO is most enticing? 19:53 Deel - Founders scale faster on Deel. Set up payroll for any country in minutes, hire anyone anywhere, get visas handled fast, and get back to building. Visit deel.com/twist to learn more. 26:07 Tokens-for-equity, GPU-hours-for-equity & the financialization of compute 28:35 Founders airing VC dirty laundry (napping VCs included) 29:56 Netsuite - The business landscape is very chaotic right now. That's why you need NetSuite, by Oracle. Get the free business guide Demystifying AI at Netsuite.com/TWiST 36:38 Claude Fable 5 first impressions: pricing, benchmarks & orchestration 45:42 Where value accrues: application layer vs. models vs. private data 1:00:06 Nationalization of AI labs: Bernie Sanders, Sam Altman & Trump agree?! 1:01:25 Portfolio spotlights: Saronic, MotherDuck, and Nox Metals 🎥 Watch the full episode here 👇

Quantifying the market value/potential/TAM for AI : The mistake (many of us) have made is using B2B enterprise software TAM ($1 Trillion) instead of realizing that the actual TAM for AI is the global labor market ($100 Trillion)…

1/ There's a bottleneck in AI that hundreds of billions of dollars can't buy past: the very few people who can wield this technology well enough to matter. There aren't nearly enough of them, and the entire buildout runs through them.

An incredibly insightful look at how the compute market is actually the “Labor Market” …and how this compute -economy is going to evolve quickly. open.substack.com/pub/robotw…

Models Aren’t Moats: General Intelligence creates the value. Specialized intelligence might capture it. open.substack.com/pub/robotw…

Essential AI Disruption Reading The New Users, by @deseventral open.substack.com/pub/robotw…

The Innovation continues at @hf0…@davefontenot

Your moat is your soul.

America is the greatest country in the world. But we need more founders working on real problems. If you are in the early stages of building something that matters, you have to be in El Segundo.🇺🇸 Apply to the Spring Cohort in bio.  Deadline February 20th.

Oh dear…

If you haven’t adopted this new way of building companies, you will get outcompeted. In twelve weeks - four of ten teams broke $2M ARR - fifth team hit $1.7M - top team went from 1 to 10M Launching applications today. Ten teams. Only one HF0.

The “Javier Milei” trend continues… In Argentina, his party has won the midterms and will have legislative control. The Golden Age of LatAm. Argentine Peso soaring in response.

“Between Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, there’s more launches and payloads that introduce more risk in space to the U.S. and its allies around the world,” says Tony Frazier, CEO of LeoLabs. wsj.com/articles/countries-w…

Sequoia in Talks to Lead Mercury Funding at Over $3 Billion Valuation - Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Who was around for Tout?

If #TikTok is banned, will everyone be returning to Tout?

Applications are now open for Designer Fund Partnership—the best design support and investment offer for Pre-seed to Series A startups. Up to $1 million in funding with flexible ownership terms. On-demand office hours tailored to what you need, instead of a fixed program. ↓

Please take 40 minutes of your time and listen to one of the most important, moving, and inspirational speeches that I have heard in my lifetime. I expect you will agree. Alternatively, if you don’t have 40 minutes, listen for five minutes and then you will find time for the rest. The speech begins at around minute 40. @RobertKennedyJr addresses the health crisis in our country and its root causes and how he intends to address it. He also scolds the DNC for its anti-Democratic anti-free speech actions during the election. It doesn’t matter whether you are a Republican, Democrat or otherwise. It is important for you to hear his words, not a short form (mis)translation by the media. We owe him as much for the work, sacrifice, and investment he has made in his campaign and in sharing his important message. Thank you @RobertKennedyJr!

I predict that the next big vanity metric for this new generation of AI powered start-ups will be "How little Capital" they raised to reach $1B valuation. Internally we're calling these "SoloSeed" companies, big change coming to VC @Jason @DWeisburd @abrams