🚨Professor Steven Kaplan: Does Venture Capital & Private Equity Really Outperform the S&P 500 in 2025?
What if nearly every long-held belief about private markets was just turned upside down? 👀
💼 For years, institutional investors have poured billions into Venture Capital and Private Equity, often believing these asset classes guarantee superior returns over traditional public markets. But does the data back that up as we move into 2025? Some numbers might surprise you — and challenge the way you think about portfolio construction.
👇 Here’s what I learned sitting down with Professor Steve Kaplan and digging through deep-dive analytics covering Harvard, Yale, and a slew of top-performing funds:
- Buyouts smashed the S&P 500 by 360 basis points annually (net, incl. dividends, 2000–2019 vintages) 📈💥
- Comparing to the Russell 2000? Buyouts have outperformed by a whopping 460 basis points — even better.
- Venture capital’s returns have been a rollercoaster: some vintages led the S&P by 20–30%, others underperformed by as much as 20% 😲
- Mega-funds (>$10B) look... average. It's the small and mid-market buyout funds that quietly outperform, especially when investors can access co-invest rights 🏆
- PE delivers real diversification: buyouts do NOT just mimic leverage on the S&P 500. Beta estimates hover at 1, not 1.4 , so correlation benefits are real 🔄
- Fee drag can bite hard: “2 and 20” classic fee structure turns into a 6% annualized cost unless you optimize with co-investments 🚦
- Returns for vintage years packed with capital flows (think 2006–08, 2020–21) trend downward — while ‘unloved’ vintages often later prove top decile.
But here’s the curveball: recent vintages, especially 2020–2022, show buyouts delivering the same—or worse—returns than the S&P 500. The PME (public market equivalent) for these is below 1, and direct alpha drops negative. Is this the end of easy outperformance? Or just a cyclical blip before another private market surge?
Special shoutout to the brilliant minds mentioned in this episode: Antoinette Schoar (MIT), co-creator of the Kaplan-Schoar PME metric and data providers MCI Burgiss, Cambridge Associates, and PitchBook for advancing transparency in private markets. We also touched on legendary VC firms like Founders Fund, Sequoia, and Benchmark, whose consistent performance shapes the venture landscape.
👇 Share your predictions or your toughest questions below!
#PrivateEquity #VentureCapital #Investing #Finance #S&P500
Link to Podcast in Comments Below 👇