My opinion on Novus Holdings results
Printing, packaging & education small cap
$JSENVS Novus Holdings issued its YE2026 trading update to March on June 11th
It indicated HEPS would be 0% and 8% lower to a range 81.26 cents and 88.32 cents. This decline was likely due to weakness in the education division and timing issues regards awarding of departmental book contracts that impacted H1 and swelled into H2
Actual YE2026 HEPS came in at 84.79 cents -4.0% on the comparative 88.33 cents per share
Before I unpack my observations I will detail some facts so as to calm those who will surely bitch & moan like that little twat Trump at me
I've owned
#NVS p.a since 140 cents after A2 Investment Partners initially became involved as an activist acquiring from Media24 their initial investment at 100 cents a share to acquire 17.4% in April 2021
I have had nor have any corporate relationship whatsoever with A2 Investment Partners or its listed assets aside from just personally owning shares in Novus & Nampak (I've made great gains on both stocks as have institutional shareholders who also followed A2)
Novus is trading today at 571 cents with a market cap of R1,960 million. It's a tightly held small cap. A2, related Novus entities and institutions own 83.73% of the shares
This (could) create an opportunity should Novus return to earnings growth and with its Mcap hovering around the R2 billion value - many institutions cannot own shares in stocks below <R2bn - any improvement in earnings prospects (could) see a push in
#NVS shares due to this illiquidity
Since A2 got involved with Novus in April 2021 (facts that will annoy some)....
Share price 100 cents to 571 cents = 471% (has been as high as 798 cents July 15th 2025)
Total dividends specials paid since A2 involved in Novus = 300 cents (including the 55c declared for YE2026)
= 871 cents of value from a stock you could have bought at 100 cents = 771%
In same period the J202 Small Cap Index has risen (from when A2 bought their initial stake in Novus) = 101%
Complain about business performance, and you can, I will join you and the machinations around
$JSEMST Mustek BUT your up 771% in total return since early-April 2021.....that is a stellar return no matter your personal stance on Novus and A2
Ok, looking at year end results to March 2026
Mixed performance. In order to get the current 6.7x PE re-rated, management need to get growth and sustainability returned to Novus
I'm concerned the education business has become a riskier asset given the inconsistent and budgetary constraints within various Departments of Education and Provincial education authorities and the recent DoBE book order scandal (now under review) does not help sector education publishing sentiment
Novus cash at year end of R1,017 billion = 320 cents per share is a solid year-on-year increase but much of this uplift will be used to buy-out Mustek where Novus now holds 50.39% directly (control) and 70.68% via its deemed concert parties
Novus has agreed to acquire outstanding shares at 1541 cents but has greedily been hoovering up shares at 1500 cents as institutions bail out of this long-too-long dragged out M&A issue with Mustek. R311m of the cash is reserved for Mustek
Novus agreed to pay a flat year-on-year dividend of 55 cents which gives a current yield of 9.6%, not too shabby at all
On underlying performance
Mixed is the best term. Group revenue R4,195m (-0.7%) with declines in print (-9.9%), education (-18.1% to R758.6m and packaging (-5.1%) to R699.5m
Operating profit fell -18.7% to R342.9m but looking into this, there are lots to unpack;
Education saw operating profits 4.4% to R169.8m but that was down to accounting wizardry rather than underlying performance
Packaging operating profit 2.7% to R88.8m mainly due to cost controls as revenue was down due to general market pressures
Print & distribution saw revenue rise 6.8% to R2,726m but operating profit slumped -37.3% to R104.4m with some benefits year-on-year from lower paper prices, costs savings and the full 12-month inclusion of an asset previously only accounted for 5 month but strip out OnTheDot and print was -9.9% hitting overall profitability
Novus needs to return to its growth tack which was why investors piled in way back in the day. Since November 2024, Novus has been bogged down with Mustek and the overall business has flatlined
Yes, cash generation and dividends are solid but I own a R2 billion small cap mainly for growth not for dividends ... CEO Andre v.d Veen will assuredly get back to wheeling & dealing when Mustek is done.... at the last AGM they indicated (given their balance sheet) they could buy businesses >R2 billion
At 571 cents and a current PE of 6.7x and a dividend yield of 9.6x I want to like Novus. The rating is fair but the company needs growth and earnings uplift to get the stock moving and the market wanting to own and buy the stock
Until the Mustek issue is done & dusted and integrated and some update is given regards the uncertainty around education and Government ineptitude...I see the share just treading water
Just my opinion as a long-standing (reasonably happy) shareholder given the total returns made to date since purchase