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@notthreadguy recap 🧵 Biggest IPO in history just dropped, and the sharpest trader I track went long with almost ZERO conviction. The full signal from last night's stream 👇
🚀 SpaceX IPO'd near $2.1T on a 4-5% float. NTG is long ~$167 but barely convicted: easily walked out.
⏳ The tell: it has to hold ~$175.5 into first earnings or insiders drip out on a timer. Elon unlocks ~49% at day 366.
🥶
$BTC: sellers exhausted, but not a single buyer left. He says SpaceX money flows to robotics, not coins.
🎫 His real conviction is boring:
$STUB 7% and
$AMC 20%, riding the World Cup ticket boom.
⚡
$HYPE was the only venue that stayed up through the IPO chaos. Small weekend long, needs $63-64 or it stays a ghost town (now $57).
🛢 Long oil? Out of your mind. Crude $84, lowest since April, with the war winding down.
💀
$MSTR premium is dead. Never understood paying $150 for a dollar of Bitcoin. Lost narrative.
🟠 Copper is the favorite setup: 4th run at ~$66. A volume break and he is a buyer on the robotics bottleneck.
📉 Shorting space stocks into the IPO printed:
$RKLB,
$ASTS, Firefly, Redwire all pumped then nuked.
🧊 Utility alts make his skin crawl. He passed on GeoNet, and says
$ZEC is fried for a long time.
LIVE: SpaceX IPO!! War Is OVER... Elon Is A TRILLIONAIRE!? Touching Grass Is BACK...
Join on twitch to chat link below
x.com/i/broadcasts/1pKkOOARp…