It's like China is the 21st century Pharaoh dealing with the 10 plagues of Egypt: Demographics. Trade. Military reach. Geographic exposure. Banking. Energy. Tech collapse. And all this is BEFORE Trump's Trade Wars.
POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS:
Between 2030-2050.... 50% of Chinese population will die from old age. They had 40 years of a one-child policy (never happened in human history). On top of that, they had a preference for girls, so they have about 25% of young males w/no female counterparts. They have no culture of inter-marriage with non-Chinese. They have no immigration.
Who will Dominate the Geopolitical System in this Decade?
youtube.com/watch?v=yttug-a3… (59 min)
At 19:50 Peter says that Trump rolled several grenades into the USA/China bi-lateral relationship. Trump implemented new trade sanctions and tariffs on China that were never rescinded by Biden. Trump hired a Taiwanese trade representative.
The Old World Order Is About To Collapse *China collapse stars 2030*
youtube.com/watch?v=wRT7P-VK… ( 1 hour 2 min)
MORTGAGE CRISIS:
youtube.com/watch?v=YBBnQmRc… (21 min)
China's Mortgage Crisis, Banks are Failing, Protests Everywhere. China's financial crisis is Here.4 crazy lessons1. mortgage companies got paid full price for the homes before they built the homes vs in the west, builder gets paid in stages as they build the home and pass inspections.2. bcuz chinese govt owns all land, govt's are selling to the banks that are not building so govt would ignore what the3. their market was more driven by investors than in the west - 70% of chinese families wealth is in real estate4. chinese banks got to place the homes they were NOT building on their balance sheets as assets. this is crazy bcuz the buyer had already paid for the property, so the property belonged to the buyer, not the
bank.so there is no accounting principle on earth that would allow the bank to pretend to "own" the asset.
The bubble in China is very different. Subprime Mortgage Crisis
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subpri… $7 TRILLION China Real Estate Bubble (Mortgage Boycotts)
youtube.com/watch?v=cfGkct4t… (13 min)
1. The subprime mortgage meltdown was spread around the globe vs China's bubble is only in China
2. The subprime mortgage meltdown had a global response. I don't think the world will rally around to prop up China's economy.
3. The US subprime meltdown was addressed by stopping making loans to people who didn't really qualify. China's bubble is across every class, not the poor. So their burgeoning middle class will be wiped out.
4. 70% of China has their wealth in real estate so this will touch 70% of the Chinese population. On the other hand, if you didn't have a subprime loan in the USA all you had to do was keep paying your mortgage and wait for values to come back. And values have come back.
5. These Chinese families have already gotten the loans and been making the payments for years on properties that have to be demolished or have never been built. People have been paying mortgages for 7-10 years on homes that have never been built. That didn't happen in the west. Will these Chinese families get that money back? If not, those people have lost a lot of money.
6. Banks could recoup their losses in the west because there were actual properties to
repossess.In China, the houses do not exist, so there is nothing to repossess. That is mind boggling.
7. People could put their houses on the market and get some money out of the property rather than have a foreclosure. Chinese can't do that because the house doesn't exist.
8. I don't know how the legal system works in China, but in the west, the people who bought the houses would be able to sue the banks for refunds. This means the banks would go bankrupt.
9. The numbers for US vs China are vastly different. The subprime meltdown in the USA was a $626B meltdown. The China meltdown is speculated to be $7T .... Trillions, not Billions. And the US economy is way bigger than the Chinese economy.
10. Chinese govt is still enforcing Covid lockdowns in the middle of this real estate meltdown.
11. 90% of Chinese real estate sales in China in 2021 were PRE-SALES, people buying property that needs to be built. In USA over 90% of real estate is buying/selling homes that already exist.
12. China's abuse of "Zero COVID" lockdowns was the kiss of death.
youtube.com/watch?v=1-gIW6aX… (2 min) Oct 2022
youtube.com/watch?v=LFSzrIGq… (9 min) Oct 2022
USA implements rule to strip citizenship from any Americans working to help Chinese develop computer chips. American companies our pulling out = China's tech industry is dying.
youtube.com/watch?v=xiTswFMr… (9 min) Why China will never take over the USA:
youtube.com/watch?v=TUeQoBdf… (9 min)