🇷🇺 Despite all the Kremlin’s efforts, Russia’s advantage in manpower compared to Ukraine is already diminishing.
▪️ Fewer and fewer Russians are willing to go to war. According to Russian economy expert Janis Kluge, recruitment into the Russian army in the first quarter of 2026 decreased by 20% compared to 2025. This trend is expected to continue.
▪️ Russia has already sent tens of thousands of convicts to the front, received reinforcements from North Korea, and recruited immigrants.
▪️ To attract new contractors, Russia offers potential recruits one-time bonuses of up to $80,000, debt write-offs of up to $140,000, “Hero” status, citizenship, and other benefits.
▪️ Ultimately, if a potential recruit did not want to take a solid bonus last year, it is unclear what would force him to change his mind now, especially against the backdrop of numerous reports about brutal treatment on the front line
☠️ At the same time, Russia is suffering catastrophic losses on the battlefield. According to Western intelligence reports, more than 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the war (with severely wounded included, manpower losses exceed 1.3 million), while hundreds of thousands more have left the country to avoid conscription. The resulting labor shortage is driving up wages, which is another source of inflation in the country.
▪️ The strategy of “pay more rather than force” is failing, especially as Russia’s economic problems continue to grow. Putin will likely have to make even more unpopular decisions this year if he wants to continue the invasion of Ukraine. One option is declaring mass mobilization.
▪️ This view is shared by Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“The Kremlin will soon face a fundamental choice: radically increase demands on the Russian economy and society, or reduce its military goals,” — he predicts.
This analysis paints a clear picture of Russia’s mounting manpower crisis and the limits of its current recruitment model. Despite heavy financial incentives and the use of convicts, foreigners, and North Korean troops, the human and economic costs are becoming unsustainable. The growing reluctance to fight, combined with catastrophic losses, is forcing the Kremlin toward increasingly difficult choices, including the politically risky option of mass mobilization. This trend significantly weakens Russia’s long-term ability to sustain the war.
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