CRUSH IT TRADING – MORNING GAME PLAN
Tuesday, June 16, 2026
MARKET BIAS: CAUTIOUS BULLISH — FED DAY PUTS A LID ON IT
Monday was strong — Dow up 0.92%, S&P 500 up 1.65%, Nasdaq surging 3.07% — with tech, comm services, and consumer discretionary leading. But today the tape has a new boss in the room. TRADING ECONOMICS
Futures this morning show the Dow set to rise while the Nasdaq may ease slightly, following the S&P's best three-day rally in 13 months. This is a classic "take some off the table before the Fed speaks" morning. TS2
Our job is not to predict. Our job is to react.
THE MAIN EVENT: FOMC DAY — WARSH'S DEBUT
Today kicks off Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair — he was sworn in on May 22. The meeting runs June 16–17, and it's also a quarterly projection meeting, meaning we get an updated dot plot and a press conference at 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday. FXStreet
J.P. Morgan's chief investment strategist summed it up well: the Fed is not expected to move rates at this meeting, and the prevailing view is they'll hold for the rest of 2026. But the bigger question is whether they formally drop the easing bias and shift to a neutral stance. Chase
Warsh has offered virtually no public comment on interest-rate policy since taking office — that silence has left traders with little to work with heading into today. The market hates ambiguity, and Warsh is serving up a full plate of it. Quartz
How it hits OUR market: the afternoon is essentially a write-off for clean setups. The real action — and the real risk — comes Wednesday at 2:30. Today is a morning game. Know when to put the gun down.
SPCX — THE NEW STOCK ON THE BLOCK
SPCX IPO'd at $135 on June 12, closed day one at $161 ( 19%), and on Monday ran to a high of $195.60 before settling around $177. That's a 44% move off the IPO price in three trading days. The honeymoon phase is alive and well.
Monday's volume was 248 million shares against an average daily volume of 522 million — still heavy retail participation but starting to normalize. Watch for the first real distribution day on this name. When it comes, it won't be pretty. Robinhood
SPCX is no longer a spectator event — it now has three days of structure and some zone history. But treat it with respect. Violent spreads, gap risk, and retail-driven moves make it a specialist's game.
WHAT WE ARE LOOKING FOR
1. MORNING SQUEEZE INTO VWAP, THEN STALL. The pattern on Fed days is grind higher in the morning, buyers fade into lunch, everyone waits for Wednesday. Gap-and-go signals in the first hour are the highest quality — they won't be there after 11 AM.
2. NVDA AS THE TAPE TELL. NVDA has been a laggard — up only 10% YTD compared to 97% for the semiconductor benchmark SOXX and 16.3% for QQQ. Retail sentiment has drifted to "extremely bearish" even as the peace rally lifted peers. If NVDA can't hold its Monday gains and reclaim the daily 50 MA today, the AI complex is skating on thin ice. Watch it closely. Stocktwits
3. IRAN PEACE DEAL — FINAL CHAPTER. Trump announced Monday that a preliminary agreement to end the Gulf conflict has been signed, though details remain undisclosed and a permanent truce is still under negotiation. WTI crude slipped to $78.66 and Brent dropped to $81.17 on the news — energy deflation is the tailwind. Any setback in the Swiss talks Friday reverses that instantly. TheStreetTheStreet
LEADERSHIP CHECK
NVDA reclaiming the 50 MA = green light. SPCX holding above $170 = Musk halo intact. Ten-year yields sitting around 4.43–4.50% — not spiking, not collapsing. That's a Goldilocks zone for tech IF Warsh doesn't rock the boat Wednesday. TRADING ECONOMICS
CIZ — TODAY'S READ
Fed Day Rule: the first candle tells you what kind of morning you have. A wide first candle means real conviction — ride the zones. A tight, choppy first candle means everyone is sitting on their hands waiting for Warsh. On tight-open Fed days, the one-signal-per-day lock is your enemy — consider toggling it off and rationing manually.
Grade signals differently today: bear-zone touch with green 10s reversal in a bull tape = A-grade dip buy. Bull-zone touch with red reversal = countertrend fade into a Fed-uncertainty tape. Tradeable, but demand cleaner confirmation and take it smaller.
After 11 AM — the quality cliff falls off a cliff. The tape will wander. Don't chase.
EZ ENTRY PRO — TODAY'S READ
The math still protects you. No true A setup exists until both HTF timeframes confirm — that means roughly 10 AM at the earliest. Anything before that is a C-setup by definition.
Wednesday rule: your exits today are your entries for Wednesday. Scale 1 and 2 are your friends today. No one is holding through a Fed press conference for Scales 3 and 4. Take your money and live to fight Wednesday.
THE A CONFLUENCE FOR TODAY
Morning dip → CIZ bear-zone touch → green 10s reversal → Entry Pro bull circle with HTF #1 agreement → LTF zone confirms → AND it happens before 11 AM.
If that sequence prints in the first 90 minutes — that's the one. After that, you're fighting the Fed's shadow.
MORE BULLISH IF: QQQ holds VWAP • NVDA finds its footing above Monday's close • SPCX holds $170 • Iran deal language firms up heading into Friday's Switzerland signing • yields stay flat
MORE BEARISH IF: QQQ loses VWAP • NVDA breaks down on continued underperformance vs. peers • Warsh hints at a hawkish shift in pre-meeting chatter • Iran talks stall • crude bounces back above $82
TODAY'S FOCUS
The Fed opens its first Warsh-era meeting today. The decision is Wednesday. Today is about positioning — and the best positioning is NOT overtrading.
One great morning setup. Two scales. Then step back and let Wednesday come to you.
🎯 Room Rule #1: Play what's in front of you, not the bias.