BREAKING: Why no MOU will be signed by Iran and why we can stop pretending it will happen.
The Core Problem: No Single Authoritative Voice
Mojtaba Khamenei formally holds the position at the apex of authority as Supreme Leader, but he is not his father — power previously concentrated in the Supreme Leader's office is now distributed among a narrow circle of military and other figures. As one analyst put it, since the war, the Islamic Republic has been operating "less as a hierarchy organized around a single dominant figure and more as a hardline coalition trying to manage war, diplomacy, and internal competition simultaneously." TimeTime
Mojtaba Khamenei: Weak Mandate
Mojtaba came to power under turbulent circumstances — his father was assassinated in the US-Israeli strikes that opened the war. No cleric of the highest authority confirmed he possesses the independent juristic reasoning required for the role, yet his deep ties to state institutions and symbolic importance as an inheritor of his father's legacy were enough to position him as successor. In his very first statement as Supreme Leader, he vowed to keep fighting, pledged that the Strait of Hormuz would continue to be closed, and called for all US bases in the region to be immediately shut down or attacked. This hawkish opening makes it politically harder for him to now sign a deal seen as conceding ground. Foreign AffairsAl Jazeera
Critically, Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since his succession on March 8, which has created additional uncertainty about whether he is actively directing policy or whether others are filling the vacuum. The Soufan Center
The Negotiators Lack Final Signing Authority
The Iranian officials actually at the table — Foreign Minister Araghchi and parliament speaker Ghalibaf — may not have the power to commit Iran to anything. Israeli sources told Channel 12 that Araghchi and Ghalibaf "may have reached agreements and guiding points with the Iranian negotiating team, but they do not have signing rights," and there is "no indication that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has approved the terms." This creates a situation where the US may believe a deal is done "at all levels," but the person with constitutional authority to ratify it has not been heard from. The Times of Israel
The IRGC: A Parallel Power Center
Hardliners tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are increasingly overpowering more moderate voices. The split became visible in mixed messaging on key issues like the Strait of Hormuz, with different factions signaling conflicting positions. Pro-regime crowds linked to the IRGC have taken to the streets openly criticizing the negotiators. MSN
The Islamabad talks in April exposed this chaos vividly: roughly 80 Iranian representatives attended — many openly clashing with each other — ranging from veteran diplomat Majid Takht-Ravanchi, who helped craft the 2015 nuclear deal, to hardline figures who blasted the US and dismissed negotiations. MSN
Moderates Face Personal Risk
The internal stakes are existential for Iranian officials who favor a deal. Iranian officials pushing for negotiations with the United States risk being labeled traitors and "most likely eliminated," according to policy expert Hooshang Amirahmadi. Secretary of State Rubio himself acknowledged "fractures" inside Iran, declining to name the US's contacts, saying doing so "would get them in trouble." Fox NewsFox News
Bottom Line
Iran's divided leadership creates a structural deadlock: the diplomats willing to negotiate lack the authority to sign, and the authority figure (Mojtaba Khamenei) has given no public signal of approval while remaining largely invisible. The IRGC, emboldened by the war, acts as a veto player from the hardline side. Any deal that Araghchi signs could be undercut, disavowed, or used to destroy him politically — which is precisely why Iran's public messaging on the MOU keeps shifting and why the signing keeps being delayed even as both sides say they are "close."