What happens to Chinese AI once American companies stop releasing frontier models internationally?
@gavinsbaker says that China's made a "terrible mistake" by relying on its own chips and distilling American models:
"It feels like the administration has been willing to let them buy H200s or B30s. And I think [the Chinese] have this crazy belief that, 'Oh, our own internal chips are good enough.' They're not."
"And what's making them think that is that Chinese labs are very, very good at distillation...we've all seen those iPhone farms in China. You know they've got the same thing for distillation. They've got 100,000 endpoints distilling these models across every API available."
"They've gotten really, really good at that. But all that goes away if people stop releasing these models at the frontier. And I think Mythos is a sign of things to come there."