The Pew quote is accurate â 69%/71% among Republicans, March 16-22. But two things the post leaves out.
First, thatâs the high-water mark, and itâs already eroding. Pewâs two-month follow-up (early May) shows nearly a third of Republicans (32%) now disapprove of his handling, and Marist has GOP disapproval up from 15% to 22% since March. The âbackdropâ is moving.
Second, and more important for the prediction: the post assumes the only base risk is looking weak on Israel by ending the war badly. But the newer numbers show the opposite pressure building. In Maristâs May poll, 25% of Republicans now say the war did more harm than good, and the share of Republicans who think the war weakened Americaâs global position doubled â 11% in January to 22% now. Thereâs growing base fatigue with the warâs costs, which pushes him toward ending it, not away.
So Trump faces two base pressures, not one: donât look weak on the ally, but also donât keep owning a war a rising share of your own side thinks backfired. The post only counts the first. A prediction about whether he signs a âbad dealâ has to weigh both.