Trump as a tool for dismantling the old order
Donald Trump is not the man who determines the direction of history. He is a symptom of a process that began long before his appearance and will probably continue long after he leaves the political scene.
The world is entering a period of increasing conflicts, but these conflicts will increasingly resemble those we know from history textbooks. Old political categories continue to be used, but reality is gradually shifting beneath them.
Everyone is talking about Trump's character, his impulsive decisions, his conflicts with the media and his constant ability to attract attention. The more important question that analysts are asking is why a significant part of the American elite allowed a figure like Trump to the top of power in the first place and why he continues to be needed.
The fact is, Trump is not building a new system. He is dismantling the old one. There is a difference here that often goes unnoticed. Politicians usually win support with promises to build. To build a new economy, a new international order, a new society. Trump's mission is the opposite, his task is not creative, but destructive.
The reason is simple. The old model of globalization is beginning to lose its ability to reproduce its own dominance. This does not mean that global corporations are disappearing or that financial centers are ceasing to function. It means that the system is finding it increasingly difficult to maintain balance between its various parts. The accumulated contradictions are becoming greater than the possibilities of management.
In such situations, historically, figures often appear who must do the unpleasant work. To destroy structures that no longer work, regardless of the fact that this generates chaos and discontent. This is precisely Trump's role, according to many analysts. Trump looks more like a tool of certain groups within the American system. Groups that have come to the conclusion that the model of recent decades cannot be preserved in its current form.
The era of unified globalization is gradually ending. The world is beginning to break up into several large geo-economic spaces that will have their own production chains, financial mechanisms, energy resources, and security systems.
In this picture, according to analysts, the United States is striving to build a “North America as a technetium.” The concept itself is controversial and subject to different interpretations, but the logic behind it is clear. Washington is thinking less and less in terms of endless global integration and more and more in terms of its own protected space.
If such a hypothesis is correct, then a number of Trump’s actions are beginning to seem more understandable. Trade wars, pressure on allies, attempts to transfer production back to the United States, constant attacks on international institutions and agreements no longer seem like random improvisations. They are beginning to resemble parts of a larger operation to collect resources within the American core.
This does not mean that the operation will be successful. But a certain logic is visible behind the seemingly chaotic actions.
Trump’s attitude towards Europe is especially curious. According to analysts, Europe is gradually ceasing to be a privileged partner of the United States and is starting to become a problem. The reason is not ideological. The reason is economic and strategic.
After the end of the Cold War, Europe functioned as an important part of the Western system. Cheap Russian energy resources, access to global markets and American military protection allowed European economies to maintain a relatively high level of well-being. After 2022, a significant part of this structure began to change.
Energy costs increased. Industrial competitiveness weakened. More and more European companies began to consider the possibility of moving production outside the continent. At the same time, military spending increased sharply.
The fact is, history is not driven only by ideologies. It is driven by raw materials, factories, transport corridors and markets. Behind every loud political declaration is the question of who controls the resources and who pays the bill.
Geopolitics is a continuation of the economic struggle by other means. The current tension between Russia and Europe is not just a conflict of values. Behind it lie questions of control over markets, resources, and future spheres of influence. Certain American circles might view the continued exhaustion of both Europe and Russia as an acceptable scenario. Not because they desire direct conflict, but because the weakening of both potential competitors would facilitate future confrontation with China.
This is a hypothesis, not a fact. Analysts base their reasoning on historical analogies. Most notably, on the way in which great powers have used conflicts between other countries to advance their own strategies.
History never fully follows the preliminary plans of its architects. Too many players are involved at the same time. Too many interests intersect.
For example, on the one hand, Washington continues to view Beijing as a major strategic rival. On the other hand, there is the enormous interdependence between the two economies. It is this interdependence that makes a direct clash much more complicated than it often seems in the media headlines.
In the world of the Cold War, the American and Soviet economies were practically independent of each other. Today's situation is radically different. Production chains, financial flows, and technological dependencies connect China and the United States in a way that makes any sharp confrontation extremely risky.
According to analysts, there is no immediate prospect of a major war between Washington and Beijing. Not because the contradictions are absent. But because the cost of such a conflict remains too high for all participants.
Thus, gradually, behind the figure of Trump, the bigger picture is beginning to emerge. The world that emerged after the end of the Cold War no longer seems sustainable. The old mechanisms are wearing out. The old rules are no longer working. Major powers are beginning to prepare for an environment in which global chains may be disrupted, alliances may prove temporary, and economic security may become more important than ideological declarations.
The big question is who actually benefits from the collapse of the global model and why the struggle between the various elite groups is only now entering a decisive phase. To date, there is no single global center that pulls all the strings. There is also no single group that fully controls the processes. On the contrary, the more we talk about power, the more complicated the picture becomes.
This is especially important today, when much of political analysis falls into two extremes. One sees omnipotent globalists everywhere who manage every event down to the last detail. The other presents the world as a chaotic collection of coincidences in which no one influences anything. The reality is probably somewhere between these two extremes.
Some analysts propose a model in which different elite groups compete with each other, enter into temporary alliances, wage hidden conflicts and constantly change their positions. This is what makes the current historical period so unstable. The old balance has been destroyed, but the new one has not yet been formed.
They view the world elite as a historically layered construction. Some of these groups have existed for centuries. Aristocratic families, financial dynasties, religious structures, trade networks that have survived empires, wars and revolutions. In recent decades, new centers of influence have joined them - digital corporations, technology platforms, financial giants and transnational investment structures.
An interesting question arises here. If the world elite is so powerful, why does the world seem increasingly chaotic?
According to analysts, the reason is that the elite itself is divided. Moreover, divided not on petty tactical issues, but in relation to the future model of the world. For decades, globalization allowed different groups to exist within a common system. Everyone benefited from the expansion of markets, the free movement of capital, and increasing integration.
However, when resources began to shrink, the situation changed. Then the question was no longer how to expand the common system, but who would control the remaining space.
This change, according to analysts, is fundamental. For decades, politics was organized around the idea of growth. Even conflicts developed within a world that continued to increase production, consumption, and financial flows. Today, more and more analysts are paying attention to the reverse process. Growth rates are slowing. Debts are growing. Social systems are becoming more expensive. The population is aging.
This does not mean that the world is becoming impoverished immediately. It means that a struggle for access to limited resources begins. And such an environment inevitably changes the behavior of elites.
His attitude towards the globalist project that dominated after the end of the Cold War is particularly telling. For decades, it seemed that the world was moving towards greater integration. International organizations were expanding their influence. National borders were losing some of their meaning. Production was being distributed across the planet. Financial flows were moving virtually without restrictions.
Today, much of this process is beginning to reverse. Production is moving back. New customs barriers are emerging. Geopolitics is increasingly displacing economic logic. Even countries that have long been symbols of free trade are beginning to protect strategic industries and domestic markets.
This is not a temporary deviation, but the beginning of a deeper transformation.
In the world that is taking shape, old ideological labels are increasingly difficult to explain. Left and right are mixing. Globalists and nationalists often defend similar economic interests. Tech corporations are gaining influence that once belonged to states.
This explains why the Trump administration was chosen as a tool for dismantling the old order. Trump represents the old school, while Vance is the face of the Tech corporations.
Artificial intelligence, digital control and the formation of a new social division may turn out to be deeper than the class differences of the industrial age.