Sparks vs Mercury
- Two bad defenses makes for a fun game for props. The Mercury rank B5 and the Sparks rank dead last in net defense. The Sparks, in particular, provide a great matchup for every position and they are allowing the 5th most points in the paint overall in addition to allowing the most assists overall and the most assists to guards.
- We took Monique Akoa Makani's assist line last game and she had 9 Pas last game but just 1 assist. I'll be back on it here.
- A lot of people got burnt on Alyssa Thomas points last game against a weak paint defense. Alyssa isn't your prototypical back to the basket big but she did have 23 in an earlier matchup vs the Sparks this season and we have seen the Mercury mix in more traditional PNRs with AT as the roller which has been effective for her points and for Monique's assists.
- The Mercury like to funnel shots away from the paint so by collapsing in the paint. It's a big reason why they are allowing the 5th most 3s and the 4th fewest points in the paint. Even though she put up 27 points vs the Mercury last game, this is a horrible matchup for her. The Mercury are allowing the fewest points to free throw but Hamby had 11 (and she shot 100%) in that game, made 2 3s (she has made 4 all season) and shot 7/11 from the field overall. Hard to replicate that.
- In my last prop thread, I noted that Mack's rebounding line of 9.5 was too high, but I didn't pull the trigger. Now it has dropped to 8.5 and I like it a lot better this game. The Sparks are allowing the 5th most o boards, which is big for Mack who has 3/2/6/5/4/0 o boards in her 6 games against B5 oboard teams. In those 6 games, she cleared 8.5 4 times. In alignment with being bad at oboards, the Sparks are also B5 in putback points allowed which is a bit chunk of Mack's production (16%). The 17.5 PR line feels nearly right priced to me so just a lean.
- I hammered Nneka's assist ladder again after getting hosed last game where she had 11 Pas and just 1 assist. The Mercury are allowing the 5th most Pas to forwards and Nneka is heavily involved in getting open looks to Plum/Wheeler/Atkins for 3 point attempts. Over half of her Pas have come to 3s.
- Conversely, Hamby has been almost non-existent in facilitating offensive actions like she was last year. She is averaging 4.3 Pas over her last 3 games and getting a 2.5 line. I have her assist line projected at 1.6.
- Kelsey also has a strong matchup for assists and is averaging 15.7 over the last 3 games, but I like her points more here. Coming off two down games in tough matchups with the Fire trapping her repeatedly and the Storm putting Jordan Horston on her, this feels like the perfect get right spot even though she went just 6/14 vs the Mercury earlier this season. The Mercury are allowing the 4th most points to PNR ball handlers and 3rd most points to guards. Paige (31), Burton (25), Courtney (30), Natisha (15), Olivia (18), Marine (21), and Rhyne (21) have all cleared their line here.
- Aerial Atkins is getting a 3.5 rebound line which she has cleared in 4 of her last 5. The Mercury allow the 4th most boards to guards primarily due to long-range rebounds due to a high volume of 3s. Paige (6), Arike (6), and Barker (7) all had big rebounding games in the last week. Plum could also be under consideration here as well. One thing to note on Atkins is her minutes continue to be unstable and Rae Burrell closed out the second game in a row over her.