I did a deep dive into our 290 LTO deals at @afternic and discovered some valuable insights concerning cancellations, early payoffs, and trends. 📉 Cancellation Rates Our raw cancellation rate was 26.9%, but that understates risk because it counts active deals as non-cancellations. A better number is the resolved cancellation rate: cancellations divided by completed LTOs. Historically, among our LTOs that have reached an outcome, about 59% completed successfully and 41% were cancelled. ⏱️ Cancellation Timing Cancellations are heavily front-loaded. Obviously the more payments they make the less likely they are to walk away at the next payment. But at what point are they really committed? Of our 78 cancellations, 28 (36%) made only one payment, 40 out of 78 (51%) made at most two payments, and 63 out of 78 (81%) made at most six payments. Once a deal avoids cancelling after only one payment, its resolved success rate rises to about 70%. Once a deal avoids the early churn window and gets to around six payments, the resolved success rate rises to around 86-88%. 📆 Cancellation and Term Length Most of our LTOs (87%) were in the 12-23 month range, so I'm not sure how statistically significant this data is. But there was a pretty clear pattern that the longer the length of the LTO, the higher the raw cancellation rate was. The raw cancellation for LTOs less than one year was 25%, for 12-23 months it was 25.3%, for 24-35 months it was 31.2%, and for 36 months it was 53.8%. You might think the longer the term, the more manageable the monthly payments are, and the more likely they'll be to stick around. But in this dataset, longer terms were clearly riskier. Personally, I’d be cautious offering terms longer than 24 months. 💳 Cancellation and Monthly Payment Looking only at 12-month LTOs, the raw cancellation rate was essentially the same for sub-$200 monthly payments vs $200-299 payments vs $300-499 payments. But interestingly, once the monthly payments reached $500 the raw cancellation rate dropped by more than 50%. That's somewhat intuitive though, someone committing to a $500 monthly payment is probably more serious and well-funded. 🤔 Confusing Cancellations Three buyers cancelled with only one payment left, which seems pretty unbelievable. In 8 cases, a cancelled LTO later sold again shortly afterward — 6 through LTO and 2 through BIN. The data doesn’t include buyer identity, but given normal domain sell-through rates and the short timing, these were very likely buyers coming back after missing a payment or regretting the cancellation. ⚡ Early Payoffs 17% of completed LTOs were paid off early. Nearly half of early payoffs happened close to the finish line, but of the early payers, 32% paid off after only 1–2 payments. 📈 LTOs By Year 2023: 13 (53 annualized) 2024: 106 2025: 114 2026: 57 (137 annualized) We're seeing a steady trend upward as LTOs stack up. 🎁 Wrap Up I hope this helps you get a better picture of what you might experience if you enable LTOs. The interesting takeaways for me were how heavily front-loaded LTO churn is, how longer terms reduce your odds of success, how little the monthly payment amount affects the odds except at the high end, and how more than 10% of cancelled LTOs still ended up in a sale shortly after.

This 6-month LTO paid off three months early. Thanks @atomHQ 🎉

Yesterday saw $523k in domain name sales including: $39,500 Insights․ai $13,500 ChatAI․org $12,888 ForHope․org $8,100 N․to $4,049 AtomLabs․ai $3,899 TrussAI․com $3,804 TreeNerd․com $3,126 Sideable․com $3,055 AspectHealth․com $2,888 FixBet․net $2,801 LiveForce․com $2,525 Warhead․ai $1,999 Teddys․co ChatAI․org sold for $320 in January last year and the buyer flipped it two months ago for $932. Just goes to show this is a game of patience and timing. Full list 👉 namebio.com/daily #Domains

This LTO is now paid off. Thanks @afternic 🥳

Yesterday saw $547k in domain name sales including: $12,211 AI․network $9,100 Tradeo․com $5,200 EverWealth․com $5,000 Almanac․in $4,499 TrueVigor․com $4,450 Simulators․ai $3,850 EveryCare․com $3,498 StartLux․com $2,995 Dodi․app $2,800 SteelSense․com Full list 👉 namebio.com/daily #Domains

Thanks @spaceship 🚀 Two in one day for the second time this week 🔥

Thanks @atomHQ 🎉

Yesterday saw $714k in domain name sales including: $100,000 Video․net $8,999 Bounty․fun $7,250 HypeMachine․com $6,099 AllInOne․ai $5,999 Polaris․finance $5,801 Padel․app $5,773 Blog․gg Full list 👉 namebio.com/daily #Domains

Yesterday saw $1.1 million in domain name sales including: $100,000 AI․exchange $32,700 8004․com $30,000 CrownAutoGroup․com $28,650 SteelEngine․com $21,000 Luxor․ai $15,611 OneDream․com $10,500 VapeMarket․com Full list 👉 namebio.com/daily #Domains

This sold on a 6-month LTO a week ago, but the buyer just came back and paid off the rest. Thanks @atomHQ 🎉

Thanks @Sedo 🥂

Thanks @atomHQ 🎉

Yesterday saw $944k in domain name sales including: $50,000 Compound․xyz $30,000 Kupon․com $16,995 HotPath․com $16,562 StarMan․com $15,000 Desain․com $15,000 XQO․com Full list 👉 namebio.com/daily #Domains

This LTO was just paid off four months early, so I can report it now. Thanks @afternic 🥳

Yesterday saw $779k in domain name sales including: $65,000 AIStack․com $34,369 Hato․com $24,521 Conqueror․com $20,000 Amphix․com $9,498 Zindra․com $9,415 AllCloud․ai Full list 👉 namebio.com/daily #Domains

Source attribution is now live for sales we didn't track directly from the origin. Any new sale added from a secondary source like X, NamePros, DNJournal, blogs, and others will carry a citation to where it was reported. We've also backfilled some historical records. Citations appear on the relevant sale's Details page and in the Top 100 charts. Direct-tracked and marketplace-reported sales make up the overwhelming majority of the database and are unchanged. This is about giving proper provenance to the small set of sales that reach us through someone else's reporting.

Thanks @spaceship 🚀

Yesterday saw $567k in domain name sales including: $35,333 Blockchains․ai $15,500 Qbts․ai $5,756 WarRoom․ai $5,006 Spicy․io $4,558 FlowTrade․com $4,289 FanKey․com Full list 👉 namebio.com/daily #Domains

I can share this LTO now that it is fully paid off. Thanks @afternic 🥳

Yesterday saw $697k in domain name sales including: $51,050 Shop․net $8,500 HoplonAI․com $6,099 AgentWorkflows․com $5,801 Agenture․com $5,700 Venting․com $4,105 FreeRoam․com Full list 👉 namebio.com/daily #Domains

Yesterday saw $823k in domain name sales including: $20,000 PrintGo․com $11,650 Pfeiffer․com $9,999 Brunhilde․com $8,000 Lunau․xyz $7,550 DataSync․ai $6,500 Cosmics․com Full list 👉 namebio.com/daily #Domains