80% gross-margin platform with way too much cost: about $373M cash/securities, ~$484M EV, ~1.8x EV/sales, and Q1 gross margin around 82%. The obvious cut is sales & marketing G&A, running about 55% of revenue, where a 15–20% trim could add $20M EBITDA (could do more). They also have a $100M buyback authorized through 2028, which is meaningful relative to the enterprise value. Loyal user base valued by the market at merely $2 per.

Trump’s MOU of Versailles: >$325B Germany’s Treaty of Versailles: $550–700 billion 2026 USD

If Warsh seems nervous that’s because he is. Why? Because he fell upwards. mispricedassets.substack.com…

Warsh sucks

The AI trade re-rates in layers. First the chips. Then the tools. This year, the unglamorous parts inside the tools — up 200% . Next is the chemistry that gets burned on every wafer. Still priced like a paint company.

Everyone’s lining up to cheer Kevin Warsh like this is some genius move and I think it will be short lived. He’s smart socially. He’s great at climbing ladders. He knows how to work rooms. But as an economist? As a steward of the monetary system? He’s surface-level. He regurgitates. He doesn’t actually think forward. And he certainly isn’t agile. People are confused like “wait, he was a hawk, now he’s not?” No — he’s whatever the room needs him to be. He’ll have concrete brain until the people around him tell him what to think. And look, I’m not inherently anti-elite. I know a lot of elite people and families. I respect a lot of them. But this whole Hampton circuit / billionaire-by-marriage thing is going to get weaponized politically, and it’s going to get ugly. Career-wise, this is a guy who went Morgan Stanley → Bush admin → Fed governor → professor → advisor. Climbed every rung. Built very little. Wrote basically nothing. Even journalists back then pointed out he had zero real research. Short term: finance guys victory lap, CNBC pump, asset prices probably hold up. Then: retail narrative flips. Smart money gets that pit in their stomach. Something feels off. “Is this guy going to react to crises effectively?”. If you take away that comfort and decrease the balance sheet, we’ll have a quagmire. Meanwhile Trump wants to be liked by the rich crowd (a core part of his psyche is yearning for respect from NY elites), they’ll turn on him, cycle moves on, and everyone pretends they didn’t support this as they pivot to securing favor from the next administration. I’m bullish America. I’m bullish innovation. I’m not bullish this decision. It’s an own goal. I’m hedged.

At this point, with even the warmongers mad at him, who still supports Trump besides the 10% of people who own all the stocks, and 80-year old FOX viewers in the market for reverse mortgages?

My secret weapon’s secret weapon. Ms Warwick was deputy chief of staff for Gov Youngkin (Data Center Alley) manager of site acquisitions for a large scale data center developer. Brilliant on nuclear / power.

.@Stocktwit monkeys perculating on $GRPN

LOL, Trump started a war with Iran when Iran was on its last legs, and ended up making Iran the hegemon of the Persian Gulf (in addition to paying Iran $300 billion of reparations)

Israel feels that in the last few days Trump has turned against it. They are worried the change is permanent. But Israeli sources are not claiming Trump is being unfair necessarily, they are describing a trap of Netanyahu's own making: 1) Israelis read the rebuke as deliberate humiliation. A senior official close to Netanyahu told Channel 12 that Jerusalem was "stunned" by Trump's criticism and called it "a resounding slap in the face." The Times of Israel 2) Israelis accept they oversold the war and got caught. Former PM Ehud Barak, on Israel's public broadcaster, said "Israel is paying the price of Netanyahu's hubris and blindness, and the price of the manipulations that he tried to pull on Trump." 3) Israelis believe Trump now sees Netanyahu as a possession. A critic quoted in Israeli media warned that Netanyahu "is turning us into a client state that takes orders about its national security." Maariv columnist Ben Caspit put it more sharply: "Israeli policy is dictated by Trump's social media posts." 4) Israelis read the Netanyahu "won't run again" remark as Trump reaching into their politics. After Trump floated that it was an open question whether the 76-year-old wants to continue his political career, Likud was forced to publicly confirm Netanyahu would run. 5) They see Lebanon signals as abandonment of a front they consider existential. Nadav Strauchler, a former Netanyahu adviser, conceded to the Times of Israel that the premier was counting on Trump's support in the election, and how the war ends will affect the result more than anything. This lands hard given fourteen IDF soldiers killed by Hezbollah since the April ceasefire. The Times of IsraelThe Times of Israel 6) Israelis see Netanyahu boxed in with no answer. Yair Golan, the center-left party leader and former general, posted on X that Trump "signs an agreement that funnels billions to the Ayatollahs' regime, leaves the nuclear infrastructure intact, preserves the ballistic threat as is, and throws a lifeline to the murderous regime in Tehran." 7) Netanyahu's camp is minimizing the rift, which is the tell. Strauchler argued the perception of a rift was overstated, yet a senior Israeli source briefed on the relationship conceded the leaked call was not helpful to Netanyahu ahead of an election he is polling to lose Bottom line: the Israeli interpretation is not that Trump betrayed a loyal ally. It is that Israel overpromised a war, Trump caught on, and Netanyahu now has no leverage, no alternative patron, and no way to answer a public humiliation except to deny it is happening.

I'm crying Iran actually regime-changed America

"If you have the right lawyer, you can create debt that sits senior to everything that already exists." A restructuring attorney walked me through how money actually gets taken in private credit. Thread 🧵 full piece below:

Shorts are starting to cover on $GRPN, Volume is half where it was. June is a pretty big options expiry, Between that and earnings I don’t see many sellers showing up around these prices.