New PunkPredictor model: the odds a Punk owner accepts your bid, at every offer. We already show the chance a listed Punk sells at each ask (now on unlisted Punks too). This is the other side, on the same chart. Punk 7383, listed 39.95Ξ. Fair value ~38.9Ξ (range ~36.7–39.5Ξ): • Fair value bid → ~58% taken • Near full ask (39.80Ξ) → ~66% • 37.8Ξ → ~21% • Below 37Ξ → under 10% And it's not just your bid vs fair value. The model reads the seller: how many Punks they're dumping, how often they relist, whether they keep cutting price, whether your offer still leaves them in profit, and how much other bid interest the Punk is pulling. Normally, you'd only catch a seller who wants out by being glued to the market all day. This finds them for you. 👇

Jun 8-14 recap: 15 Punks sold this week, and we priced every one before it hit. Within ~10.95% on average. Closest call: Punk #8124, model 40.51Ξ vs 41.6Ξ sold. Biggest market surprise: Punk #5092 sold 200Ξ, ~31.86% above where the market had it. Someone overpaid ~48.32Ξ. The more useful question: how much edge have you left on the table? Drop your wallet in and every Punk you've ever bought or sold gets scored against fair value at the time. Your best steals, your biggest donations, the ETH you walked away from. Free, no wallet connect: punkpredictor.xyz/wallet (Full access: 5 of 20 seats open.)

PunksOTC sold CryptoPunk 4153 for 41.53 ETH, above PunkPredictor’s 38.14 ETH estimate. They exited after 25 days with a 3.03 ETH profit.

CryptoPunk 628 just slipped into lender hands on NFTfi. The 30 day loan for 20.5 ETH opened at 62.1% LTV, drifted to 61.4%, then defaulted when borrower 0x021… failed to repay at 19.0% APR. Lender 0xd76…, with 18 total loans and a 16.7% default rate, now holds the punk. It was their fourth deal with this borrower, and the second to go bad, underscoring a risky partnership.

CryptoPunk 5092 sold for 200 ETH, above PunkPredictor’s 151.68 ETH estimate and far above the 32.7 ETH floor.

CryptoPunk 2595 sold for 31.85 ETH, below PunkPredictor’s 33.32 ETH estimate and the 32.6 ETH floor.

CryptoPunk 7076 sold for 41 ETH, above PunkPredictor’s 39.87 ETH estimate and the 32.6 ETH floor.

CryptoPunk 1475 sold for 40 ETH, above PunkPredictor’s 35.98 ETH estimate. The seller exited after about 7 months with a 5 ETH profit.

tic.eth, part of punk4725, sold CryptoPunk 8124 for 41.6 ETH, above PunkPredictor’s 40.51 ETH estimate. They acquired it after a loan default at a 41.22 ETH basis and exited with a 0.38 ETH profit.

When did JPEG loan defaults turn into sports commentary?

vault.trislit.eth, part of trislit, sold CryptoPunk 9706 for 42.07 ETH, above PunkPredictor’s 38.7 ETH estimate. They exited with a 41.87 ETH profit after holding it for about 8 years.

CryptoPunk 2595 just defaulted. Borrower 0x021… failed to repay a 30-day 20.6 ETH loan on NFTfi that opened at 62.8% LTV and was still only 61.6% when time ran out. For lender 0xd76… it is just the 2nd default in 18 loans. The borrower takes a 4th hit in 88 deals, ending a three-loan clean streak between the two wallets.

CryptoPunk 8124 defaulted on GONDI. Drwhetfaartz.eth failed to repay 32.8 ETH after 18 days at 10.8% APR. LTV crept from 78.6% to 79.6%, pushing the loan into liquidation. Veteran lender tic.eth, with 11 loans, records a first default; same for the 12-loan borrower.

CryptoPunk 7584 just defaulted on GONDI. Borrower 0xd79... took 66.7 ETH for 30 days at 10.0% APR, starting at a hefty 128.8% LTV. At expiry the loan still sat at 126.7%, so lender 0x1oreo now takes custody of the Punk. The outcome is unusual: 0xd79… has only a 1.4% default rate across 3,462 loans, and their two previous deals with 0x1oreo were repaid. For 0x1oreo, an active lender with 49 loans and an 8.2% default rate, this marks their fourth loss.

CryptoPunk 8332 sold for about 31.2 ETH, below PunkPredictor’s roughly 34.7 ETH estimate and the 32.5 ETH floor. Buyer was PunksOTC.

CryptoPunk 9541 sold for 36.9 ETH, above PunkPredictor’s 35.77 ETH estimate and the 32.7 ETH floor. The seller exited with a 7.1 ETH profit after about 4 months.

CryptoPunk 2303 sold for 33 ETH, below PunkPredictor’s 36.65 ETH estimate. The seller held it for about 5 years and exited with a 65 ETH loss.