1/ Bitcoin's down 17% in a week. Nearly 50% off the highs. Fear and Greed at 12. Everyone's calling the top of crypto forever.
Here's what we actually covered on the London Open this morning.
2/ "Cheap" is not a setup.
Price being lower than last week tells you nothing about where it goes next. Down 50% and it can still go lower.
3/ The question that matters: is this a pullback, or is this the trend?
You answer that with market structure, not emotion.
Weekly = lower high, lower low.
That's a downtrend. The bounce is counter-trend.
4/ Which changes everything.
The opportunity is selling strength, not buying weakness. The counter-trend long exists, but it's the high-caution play, not the main event.
5/ Process over prediction.
Fear at 12 is context, not a buy signal. We don't need to know where the bottom is. We need our levels, scenarios, triggers and risk rules - and we let the structure lead.