Developper turned macro investor. Passionate about technology, startups, privacy, history, geopolitics and psychology. Effective altruist.

Joined September 2013
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Pinned Tweet
15 Apr 2022
"Never apologize for being correct, or for being years ahead of your time. If you’re right and you know it, speak your mind. Speak your mind. Even if you are a minority of one, the truth is still the truth." — Gandhi
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EffAlt retweeted
It is a great paradox that individually we are simultaneously everything and nothing. Through our own eyes, we are everything--e.g., when we die, the whole world disappears. So to most people (and to other species) dying is the worst thing possible, and it is of paramount importance that we have the best life possible. However, when we look down on ourselves through the eyes of nature we are of absolutely no significance. It is a reality that each one of us is only one of about seven billion of our species alive today and that our species is only one of about ten million species on our planet. Earth is just one of about 100 billion planets in our galaxy, which is just one of about two trillion galaxies in the universe. And our lifetimes are only about 1/3,000 of humanity's existence, which itself is only 1/20,000 of the Earth's existence. In other words, we are unbelievably tiny and short-lived and no matter what we accomplish, our impact will be insignificant. At the same time, we instinctually want to matter and to evolve, and we can matter a tiny bit--and it's all those tiny bits that add up to drive the evolution of the universe. #principleoftheday
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I might get killed for posting this, the least you could do is watch it.

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Thoughts on Venezuela now the smoke has cleared.⬇️ 1. Trump Doctrine. This operation was thematically similar to last summer's attack on Iranian nuclear facilities - billed as a masterstroke, collapses under scrutiny, and gives Trump cover to disengage from a foreign adventure. 2. As an initial matter, this was all flagrantly illegal aggression against a sovereign state on pretenses so flimsy they're not even legally cognizable. We're literally charging Maduro with violating the National Firearms Act. Dude is going to be a martyr for the Second Amendment, I can't wait to see gun twitter jump all over this lol. 3. This was not actually regime change. Maduro was not a totalitarian law unto himself, he's an eminently replaceable Latin American kleptocrat. The Venezuelan government (to include its senior leadership) and military appear to be almost entirely intact. At the moment they're discussing simply implementing the legal line of succession through the Vice President and moving on with business as usual! In any event Trump discussing somehow picking a new government in Venezuela or exercising authority over the country's governance is a fantasy at this point, we're occupying nothing and we have no leverage. 4. Tying back into the above, all of those senior leaders and that military seem to have gotten the memo to change their bed down locations and not show up for duty last night. The assault force, flying in slow and highly vulnerable helicopters, took desultory small arms fire coming in but not the antiaircraft buzzsaw they should have run into over Caracas given the Venezuelans have had four months to prepare for war. It's unclear whether they faced any resistance at all on the ground - for all we know by that point Maduro had already been arrested by his own military and was simply handed over to the commandos. Certainly the troops were in and out very quickly, suggesting actions on the objective were largely pro forma. 5. Trump has immediately pivoted to an offramp in the Caribbean despite the fact that absolutely none of the ostensible underlying causes of our intervention are remotely resolved at this point - drugs, oil, expropriation, etc. In fact he's been quite clear the Chinese will get their oil, so he seems to consider the operation entirely concluded. As I mentioned above, this is identical to his offramp from the 12 Days' War - conduct a strike on Iranian nuclear sites that was far less impactful than it was billed as to the American public and which was actually below the retaliatory threshold of the Iranians, and then immediately declare victory and leave. This operation feels exactly as choreographed as the denouement of the 12 Days' War - conduct a flashy raid while the Venezuelan Army takes a siesta, get a scalp, declare victory and leave, after which the Venezuelan government shrugs and moves on. Perhaps the Venezuelan government will be persuaded to give US companies some oil concessions going forward.
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We are witnessing a civilizational collapse with the EU sanctioning Jacques Baud, a retired Swiss colonel and intelligence officer, for publishing books and articles expressing views on the Ukraine war contrary to those of the NATO leadership.
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12 Aug 2025
It looks like X is suppressing mentions of the "Online Safety Act." RT the hell out of this and let's see (we'll let you know the results)
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8 Jul 2025
Maturing is realizing America is the most corrupt country in the world.
7 Jul 2025
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US DOJ and FBI conclude Jeffrey Epstein committed suicide and had no client list, Axios reports.
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Yet more evidence suggesting that @OpenAI is reckless & evil, and @sama is a manipulative sociopath.
Huge repository of information about OpenAI and Altman just dropped — 'The OpenAI Files'. There's so much crazy shit in there. Here's what Claude highlighted to me: 1. Altman listed himself as Y Combinator chairman in SEC filings for years — a total fabrication (?!): "To smooth his exit [from YC], Altman proposed he move from president to chairman. He pre-emptively published a blog post on the firm's website announcing the change. But the firm's partnership had never agreed, and the announcement was later scrubbed from the post." "...Despite the retraction, Altman continued falsely listing himself as chairman in SEC filings for years, despite never actually holding the position." (WTAF.) 2. OpenAI's profit cap was quietly changed to increase 20% annually — at that rate it would exceed $100 trillion in 40 years. The change was not disclosed and OpenAI continued to take credit for its capped-profit structure without acknowledging the modification. 3. Despite claiming to Congress he has "no equity in OpenAI," Altman held indirect stakes through Sequoia and Y Combinator funds. 4. Altman owns 7.5% of Reddit — when Reddit announced its OpenAI partnership, Altman's net worth jumped $50 million. Altman invested in Rain AI, then OpenAI signed a letter of intent to buy $51 million of chips from them. 5. Rumours suggest Altman may receive a 7% stake worth ~$20 billion in the restructured company. 5. OpenAI had a major security breach in 2023 where a hacker stole AI technology details but didn't report it for over a year. OpenAI fired Leopold Aschenbrenner explicitly because he shared security concerns with the board. 6. Altman denied knowing about equity clawback provisions that threatened departing employees' millions in vested equity if the ever criticised OpenAI. But Vox found he personally signed the documents authorizing them in April 2023. These restrictive NDAs even prohibited employees from acknowledging their existence. 7. Senior employees at Altman's first startup Loopt twice tried to get the board to fire him for "deceptive and chaotic behavior". 9. OpenAI's leading researcher Ilya Sutskever told the board: "I don't think Sam is the guy who should have the finger on the button for AGI". Sutskever provided the board a self-destructing PDF with Slack screenshots documenting "dozens of examples of lying or other toxic behavior. 10. Mira Murati (CTO) said: "I don't feel comfortable about Sam leading us to AGI" 11. The Amodei siblings described Altman's management tactics as "gaslighting" and "psychological abuse". 12. At least 5 other OpenAI executives gave the board similar negative feedback about Altman. 13. Altman owned the OpenAI Startup Fund personally but didn't disclose this to the board for years. Altman demanded to be informed whenever board members spoke to employees, limiting oversight. 14. Altman told board members that other board members wanted someone removed when it was "absolutely false". An independent review after Altman's firing found "many instances" of him "saying different things to different people" 15. OpenAI required employees to waive their federal right to whistleblower compensation. Former employees filed SEC complaints alleging OpenAI illegally prevented them from reporting to regulators. 16. While publicly supporting AI regulation, OpenAI simultaneously lobbied to weaken the EU AI Act. By 2025, Altman completely reversed his stance, calling the government approval he once advocated "disastrous" and OpenAI now supports federal preemption of all state AI safety laws even before any federal regulation exists. Obviously this is only a fraction of what's in the apparently 10,000 words on the site. Link below if you'd like to look over. (I've skipped over the issues with OpenAI's restructure which I've written about before already, but in a way that's really the bigger issue.)
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A big step up the escalation ladder as the EU to let Ukraine fire NATO rockets deep into Russia. I am not sure why isn't everybody worried sick but no one seems to care. They must not have read any history. zerohedge.com/geopolitical/m…

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7 Apr 2025

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21 Jan 2025
V, you only have yourself to blame. Your poor people skills have led you to hire someone completely incompetent to lead the EF. It’s time to own the mistake, learn from it, replace Aya and from now on delegate the character assessment job to somebody you trust. You’re just not good at it, and that’s ok
No. This is not how this game works. The person deciding the new EF leadership team is me. One of the goals of the ongoing reform is to give the EF a "proper board", but until that happens it's me. If you "keep the pressure on", then you are creating an environment that is actively toxic to top talent. Some of Ethereum's best devs have been messaging me recently, expressing their disgust with the social media environment that people like you are creating. YOU ARE MAKING MY JOB HARDER. And you are decreasing the chance I have any interest whatsoever in doing "what you want". Milady. x.com/coinmamba/status/18809…
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22 Dec 2024
🇨🇳🐉 Chinese drone show
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A discussion of how brewing war in the Middle East and domestic stagflation are tracking the 1970s: myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Re…

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14 Jun 2024
They've gone full mask-off: 𝐝𝐨 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫 trust @OpenAI or its products (ChatGPT etc). There is only one reason for appointing an @NSAGov Director to your board. This is a willful, calculated betrayal of the rights of every person on Earth. You have been warned.
🚨🇺🇸BREAKING: OPENAI APPOINTS FORMER NSA HEAD PAUL NAKASONE TO BOARD OpenAI has appointed Paul M. Nakasone, retired US Army general and former NSA head, to its board of directors. Nakasone, who led the NSA from 2018 to 2023, will join OpenAI's Safety and Security Committee. He will help improve AI’s role in cybersecurity by detecting and responding to threats quickly. His appointment follows concerns over safety culture at OpenAI. Source: The Verge
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9 Jun 2024
🚨 Lindsey Graham has just confirmed that they are not sacrificing the Ukrainian people for "freedom" and "democracy,"  but for Ukraine's minerals, which are worth trillions of dollars, and the West wants them. This is unbelievable…

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Jeffrey Sachs with probably the smartest and most accurate assessment of the Ukraine war, and American foreign policy more broadly, ever caught on tape. (20:17) Why did America push for Ukraine to Join NATO? (58:34) What is a Neocon? (1:25:28) Regime Change Never Works (1:36:27) Who Blew up the Nord Stream Pipeline? (2:01:45) COVID Origins
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“It's good to learn from your mistakes. It's better to learn from other people's mistakes.” — Charlie Munger
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The dark secret of capital gains tax during inflation—it taxes you for gaining nothing: If you have $400k in retirement assets, and 25% more money is “printed”, your assets are now worth $500k, but you are no richer. The dollar just became 25% less valuable. Although you are no richer, you will be taxed as if you made $50k-$66k (in Canada). You really made $0. You just became poorer and experienced no upside. This is an effect that can impact every middle class person saving for retirement, owning a cottage, running a small business, owning startup stock options etc.
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EffAlt retweeted
18 Apr 2024
Replying to @brave @heyeaslo
Here, we fixed it.
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28 Mar 2024
Not nearly enough
28 Mar 2024
JUST IN - Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years in prison.
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29 Feb 2024
The modern behavior I least understand is wearing a smartwatch I'm fighting a daily battle to keep my attention from splintering into a million pieces as I'm hunted relentlessly by predatory tech algorithms... And you want me to tie a Pavlovian training device to my wrist?!
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