INSIDE PREDICTION MARKETS. WHO SETS THE ODDS?
Episode 4 of PredictTime is live, and you'll hear it from the person who knows everything about how prices are formed in crypto and prediction markets.
@amomot86, founder and CEO of
@PeanutTrade. We go deep into why every platform shows you a price but never the hidden hand behind it, and into the journey that took him from dropshipping to one of the top market makers in crypto
Now he's building the prediction markets aggregator
@doxawin. Everything you need to know about market making and the future of prediction markets is in this episode
Win $300 by guessing in the comments the biggest market by volume on DOXA as of July 1, 2026:
- register via the link:
doxa.pro/?ref=YBW73WE2
- name the market and follow
@predicttime_ and
@doxawin
the platform is currently in closed beta - and we're offering our viewers exclusive access
Timecodes:
00:00 — Intro: market making in prediction markets
01:01 — Guest introduction
01:21 — ETH ICO 2014: investing in Vitalik's pitch at $0.30
03:38 — Life before crypto: selling goods and first mining
05:58 — Buying the first two Bitcoins
06:31 — 2014 Telegram chats and contact with Vitalik
09:24 — Staying in touch with Vitalik today
10:25 — When he sold ETH and lessons from past cycles
11:47 — Remy project: $20M to solve the password problem
15:59 — Biometrics and Face ID - do they solve passwords?
17:20 — What's changed across 4 crypto cycles
18:49 — Predatory market making and toxic environment
20:34 — Why he chose market making
22:19 — Market maker tricks: pump-and-dump schemes
25:56 — Competitor M&A: why they stayed independent
29:09 — Pivot to prediction markets: long tail and market structure
31:11 — The team: 60 people, hiring in Ukraine
34:35 — Hardest and easiest roles to hire for
37:49 — Timing problem: bull/bear cycles and team building
39:19 — "Trust your gut" decisions vs quant strategies
41:55 — Why bet on prediction markets instead of memes
44:35 — Idea: tokenizing real estate via prediction markets
46:46 — Risk of giving away ideas to competitors
47:21 — 150 projects: which one he'd tell his grandkids about
49:37 — 60-second explainer: how Peanut Trade does market making
52:04 — Technical challenges: oracles, liquidity, rules across venues
54:27 — Structure of Yes/No order books
57:00 — Example: $1,000 moved probability by 1.5%
59:19 — Sports vs geopolitics: different liquidity dynamics
59:44 — Technical breakdown: why Yes No isn't always $1
01:00:46 — Cross-venue arbitrage in 10 milliseconds
01:04:23 — Top 3 problems in prediction markets and possible solutions
01:10:13 — When he realized the potential of prediction markets (2014 → 2024)
01:13:28 — 2024 prediction came true: fake accounts and no alt season
01:18:00 — Best and worst trades (Iran strike and Zelensky market)
01:19:58 — Legal risks for prediction markets
01:21:48 — Threat of Polymarket building its own market maker
01:23:35 — Meme season as this cycle's "alt season"
01:25:16 — AI in life and business: cutting costs on consulting
01:29:33 — AI agents on Polymarket: hype or reality?
01:33:00 — Will AI replace his job in 5 years?
01:33:41 — Market makers he respects (Jump, the Luna crash)
01:35:38 — Business as art and creativity
01:36:34 — "Fair market making" - a client's slogan
01:37:09 — Where is Web3 heading
01:41:21 — Bitcoin's next bull run prediction
01:42:59 — Does he still believe in crypto "cycles"?
01:46:26 — Innovation decline in Web3 and globally
01:48:24 — Global crisis: triggers and forecast
01:51:31 — The future of Peanut Trade in 2 years
01:52:44 — Quick-fire round: rapid predictions
01:55:10 — Closing, giveaway, and goodbye