Calling the exact ethereum:native bottom with "historical signals" has a problem nobody talks about. ETH has only bottomed twice in its entire life. Trusting two samples is like flipping a coin twice, getting heads both times, and betting your house that the third flip lands heads.
That is exactly why DCAing in this range will always be the better strategy than trying to snipe the low.
Here is what the data actually shows right now.
ETH trades at $1,644. The average holder paid around $2,190. The market is selling you ETH at a 25% discount to what the crowd paid for it. In ETH's whole history that discount only existed near major bottoms.
ETH is also further below its 200 week average than it has ever been. Not close to a record. The record.
Now the part most people skip. Bitcoin runs this market, and Bitcoin has not flushed yet. bitcoin:native is down 50% from its top. Every real BTC bottom was down 77% or more. BTC still trades above what its average holder paid. It is sitting right on its 200 week average, the line every bear market in its history bottomed near. Hold that line and the floor is probably close. Lose it and ETH likely sees $1,000 before it sees $4,000.
So the honest picture: ETH is cheap by the numbers that mattered at every past bottom. The risk is the path, not the price. Cheap can get cheaper for months.
Which brings it back to the start. You do not bet the house on the third coin flip. You average in, you size so a 40% drop cannot take you out, and you let the discount do the work over the long run