a quick look at silver: Day 1 of DC3 *pending. Price found support at the previous ICL (purple line) and had a robust bounce yesterday. This formed a potential swing bottom. Although too early to call a DCL, the bounce out of the swing bottom is strong enough to tentatively mark as such, making today Day 1 of a new DC. To confirm the DCL, watch for price to follow through to the upside and begin closing above the 10 dma. The 10 dma turning up and RSI(5) moving above 50, preferably closer to 70, will be the parameters needed to validate the DCL. Ideally, the initial bounce out of the swing low would close above the 10 dma, but considering the gap between price and the 10 dma that had formed, the 10 dma maybe the first resistance for silver to overcome. Resistance at the 10 dma may begin a tug-of-war between bulls putting the low behind them and bears pushing price down to invalidate the swing low. Considering the multi-year extreme RSI(5) readings at the lows, a further drop lower could be asking for a lot. Looking ahead, silver needs to re-establish a series of higher lows and higher highs to rebuild a longer term ascending trend. Steady as she goes. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 30 of DC2. What looked like a potential hammer forming yesterday rolled over to new lows, eventually finding support at the previous ICL. This drop also marked another multi-year low single digit RSI(5) print. As of this post, yesterday's low is holding and forming an inside candlestick pattern. There are some constructive signs of a bottom including the support at the previous ICL, the RSI(5) rebounding from extremes and price moving away from crawling along the lower rail of the BB. At 30 days, this DC is getting mature. It is tempting to be bullish on the low occurring yesterday, however, this requires much more validation including a swing low. In general, this LT DC has been embedded in oversold levels for the balance of the cycle. Getting over our skis and attempting to call a bottom prematurely is likely not a good idea. For bulls, watch for swing low, potentially an aggressive move out of these extreme conditions. For bears, watch for a retest of the ICL support (purple line) and break below. If this happens, a divergence will likely mark a bottom. Steady as she goes. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 29 of DC2. Silver continues to look for a swing bottom during the timing band for a DCL. At 29 days, there are some signs that a bottom is near. After a technical BB crash, price continued to crawl along the bottom rail of the BB for a couple days, and as of this post, has started to move back inside the BBs. In addition, there is a potential hammer forming today after hitting a lower cycle low in overnight trading. And finally, RSI(5) printed 7.82 yesterday. This is the lowest RSI(5) reading since the Covid low in 2020. To round out this list, the gap between the 10 dma and price has widened to over $5. All of these factors paint a picture of a silver DC that is due for a DCL. However, bottoming is a process and although there is smoke, there is no fire yet. If price continues lower, watch for a divergence between price and the RSI. If price continues to recover, a swing low would be the first sign of a potential DCL. To note: Silver does not live in a vacuum. The NASDAQ dropped over 8% in the last few trading days, it may have been a case of throwing the baby out with the bath water that caused silver to reach these extremes during the same time. Steady as she goes. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 28 of DC2. Silver continues to look for a DCL as price drops lower and begins to crawl along the lower Bollinger band. At the time of this post, the RSI(5) is now below 10; a level not seen in 4 yrs as a closing print. At 28 days, silver is in the timing band for a DCL. With a lower cycle low today, this will be the 17th day that silver has remained below the 10 dma. Continue to watch for a swing low as the first step of a potential DCL. For bears, the message is the same as yesterday, enjoy the show, but stay near the exits as the indicators are at extremes. Steady as she goes, captain. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 27 of DC2. Price continues to drop in the timing band for a DCL. The rapid move on Friday from already oversold levels has pushed the RSI(5) to extremely oversold levels that have only been reached one other time in almost 30 months. The rapid move has also pushed price outside the BB(10,2), also a uncommon occurrence. It is tempting to plant a flag today as a DCL, but bottoming is a process and so far there is only a possible hammer forming at these extremes. For bulls, watch for a swing low, then validation with follow through to the upside, a close above the 10 dma, and the 10 dma turning up. Silver maybe well into the next cycle before all these parameters are met. This is typical of sharp sell offs. For bears, from a cycle perspective, one can continue to enjoy the movie, but stay close to the exits. Steady as she goes, captain. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 26 of DC2. After acting as support during the sideways consolidation, the lower rail of the consolidation zone (purple line in chart) has been broken decisively to the down side. Price has made a lower cycle low and also below the previous DCL. This breaks the pattern of higher highs and higher lows. As of this post, today's rapid price drop has turned the 10 dma to sharp decline, and the RSI(5) is at extremely oversold levels near 13. The long consolidation had also pinched the Bollinger Bands and price has now broken below the lower BB. Taken as a whole, all of this action points to a move into a sharp DCL. The RSI(5) has only reached these low levels a few times in the last couple years. As per usual, bottoming is a process, not a single point in time. At the end of DC5 in the chart did not complete until there was a double bottom with divergence. And at the of DC6 in the chart ended with a crawl along the BB for several days. Early signs of a DCL maybe a long bottom wick on the daily candle. Volatility will likely increase if price continues lower. Steady as she goes, captain. #Silver

Silver breaking down out of consolidation tonight. Price is also starting to open a gap with the 10 dma. Each of the last 4 silver DCs have reached at least 30 on the RSI(5). In contrast, the DCs in the lead up to the ATH only touched 30 at the ICLs. I assume this kind of pattern will occur again when silver is well and truly on a bullish track again. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 25 of DC2. Silver remains in consolidation with the 10 dma continuing to slide lower each day, compressing price between the lower rail of the consolidation and the 10 dma. The lower rail has acted as support so far, but the support can give way with enough attempts to break below. The consolidation has lasted 12 days; a relatively long time for silver in recent months. RSI(5) continues to meander in oversold territory. Technically, there is cycle low on May 28 (marked with an arrow on the chart) that is still holding. If the cycle low holds as a DCL, then the move out of the DCL has been very weak. Considering the continued compression of the consolidation to the downside, a break of the lower rail into a DCL seems more likely than a breakout to the upside. As this cycle matures and nears the median 27 day cycle length, a sharp drop into a DCL seems more constructive than a slow recovery. A slow recovery would start with price closing above the 10 dma, turning the 10 dma up, and out of the consolidation. The sideways action should resolve soon. Steady as she goes, captain. #silver

a quick look at silver: Day 24 of DC2. Price continues to be boxed in a consolidation pattern, with the 10 dma acting as a resistance level that is slowly dropping lower. This has resulted in price getting squeezed into a tight range with the 10 dma overhead and the support level of the consolidation below. RSI(5) is reflecting this sideways action, remaining embedded at oversold levels. The cycle low continues to remain the possible DCL, but has had little convincing follow through to make that call. Meanwhile, the support around 73.40 has been tested again this morning and has held as of this post. Assuming the DCL is still ahead, a decisive drop out of the consolidation may result in a sharp drop to a DCL. The cycle is in the timing band for a DCL. As usual, bottoming a process more than point in time. For bulls and bears, a well defined DCL would wash out sentiment and set-up the potential to get silver moving up and to the right with more confidence. Steady as she goes, captain. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 22 of DC2. Silver continues to consolidate in a tight range over the last 11 trading days. This meandering action has slid the 10 dma slowly lower, and now within the intraday price range. As of this post, price has been above and below the 10 dma intraday. RSI(5) continues to be oversold, although nearing neutral. The potential swing low continues to be valid, although the parameters to be met are slow to show up. Overall, the move into the DCL has been difficult as it trends sideways. To note, there is a potential coil forming with several trading days opening and closing near the same price. The wicks on the candles are a bit stubby, but still something to keep in mind. The chart is a bit busy today, but the BB have been added just to show how much they have pinched in. For bulls, watch for price to move out of consolidation to the upside. Closing above the 10 dma will be the first step, followed by a move above around 79.50. With a long consolidation, it is possible for price to move quickly as silver goes from the back burner to the front. Steady as she goes, captain. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 22 of DC2. Silver continues to trend sideways in consolidation. The 10 dma has been solid overhead resistance that continues to slowly trend lower. The potential swing low did not have a bullish follow through for a strong start of a new DC. At 22 days, this cycle is now LT. These long periods of consolidation during the timing band for a DCL can make determining the DCL more difficult as there can be false starts as price bounces in a range. RSI(5) continues to embed at oversold levels. Looking ahead, price is slowly getting squeezed between the 10 dma and the bottom of the consolidation zone. A close above the 10 dma would further valid the weak swing low from last week, where as drop out of the consolidation would likely be a move into a more decisive DCL. Steady as she goes, captain. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 21 of DC2. Yesterday's silver action perked some interest as price broke slightly below the consolidation box, then reversed into the closing, ending near the highs of the day. This is a nice, albeit early, potential DCL. Overnight action formed a technical swing low, but as of this post, price was rejected at the 10 dma and trending lower. The swing low is still valid, but in a sideways, consolidating chart with the RSI(5) embedding below 50, it is much easier to form false swings as price bounces within the consolidation. For bulls, watch for the consolidation to end and the swing low to remain valid with a close above the 10 dma, followed by enough momentum to break out of the consolidation with some fervor. For bears, the back half of this DC2 has been already bearish. Watch for the consolidation to end with a drop out of the box into a DCL. Steady as she goes, captain. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 20 of DC2. With silver now in the timing band for a DCL and any higher high being a new cycle, rather than an extremely RT DCH, the DCH has been validated. This means this cycle is LT, and unexpected for a 2nd DC. After testing support (purple line on chart) earlier today, price has formed a hammer candlestick as of this post. As usual, bottoming is a process, so while a hammer candlestick is a good start, this will require the usual parameters to be filled before being a DCL. At 20 days, this would be a relatively short cycle, so would not be surprised to see further bottoming. Since day 12 of the cycle, price has been consolidating in a range. For bulls, closing at the day's high would be an excellent start, followed by a a swing bottom tomorrow. Closing above the 10 dma would further validate the bottom. RSI (5) moving out of oversold levels, 10 dma turning up, and price moving out of this consolidation zone would be enough validation of the DCL. To note, a bottom today would maintain the series of higher lows and higher highs. For bears, the 10 dma continues to be resistance, and further attempts at breaking the support (purple line) are possible. Steady as she goes, captain. #Silver

a quick look at silver: Day 19 of DC2. Price continues to struggle to gain upward momentum, as yesterday's move through the 10 dma was rejected. The 10 dma continues to be the first area of resistance as price has dropped lower this morning. At day 19 and a likely LT DC, the DC is now in a timing band for a DCL rather than a DCH. RSI(5) continues to embed below 50, and 10 dma continues to trend down. For bulls, a cleanly identifiable swing low that is quickly validated would be the best scenario. A flat, consolidating low maybe require validation well after the fact. Steady as she goes, captain. #Silver

a quick look at gold: Day 16 of DC2. Price knocked enough times on the black support line that it finally broke through to the downside. This has pushed RSI(5) into very oversold levels. The overall picture of gold since the ICL has been decidedly weak, with price unable to establish a series of higher lows and higher highs. RSI(5) has also not been able to get into and hold more bullish overbought levels. Assuming it is day 16 of DC2, this DC is likely an LT DC. With a lower cycle low than the DCL, DC2 would be a failed daily cycle. For bulls, the silver lining to watch is for a discernable, obvious attempt at a swing low and potential DCL. If validated as a DCL, whether is it a very short DC2 (or a very long DC1), it will be worth taking seriously. Steady as she goes, captain. #Gold

a quick look at silver: Day 19 of DC2. Silver continues to trade below the 10 dma for the 7th consecutive day. The 10 dma has continued to trend lower and has completely closed the gap with price today. RSI(5) also continues to stay below 50, although slowly moving higher since last week. The outlook for this DC remains the same - until proven otherwise, this cycle looks to be LT. With 7 trading days remaining until the median 27 day silver cycle length, the odds of making a higher cycle high is becoming less likely. For bulls, closing above the 10 dma would be a start to a late cycle push higher. Steady as she goes, captain. #Silver