IF all these conditions are met next week: Shipping is flowing freely through the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade is lifted, no further sanctions relief is provided to Iran, and new sanctions are still imposed when evasion is found.
The result would be:
- Oil prices down and stocks starting to refill.
- No tolls or threats to freedom of navigation.
- The regime gets back the $3 billion per week Trump took away with the blockade.
- Iran has no enrichment or ballistic missile production capabilities, no defense industrial base, no real air defense, and existing enriched uranium stockpiles are entombed.
- Iran's economy continues to hemorrhage from the enormous damage of Epic Fury while consumer demand continues to rise without bombs dropping, putting more pressure on the regime from within.
Conclusion: We would be much better off than we were before Operation Epic Fury with a trajectory for more success ahead.
This forecast changes dramatically IF there are side deals for cash release from Gulf countries or access to Qatar or Oman-based escrow accounts; broad oil sanctions waivers; a commitment to stop enforcing sanctions; or other forms of sanctions relief not being advertised.