I’m baffled that many think this proposed gambling tax change doesn’t affect the vast recreational base because “most people lose anyways”.
Sure, the big losers have nothing to worry about. But the house edge in many popular verticals is sub 10% if not sub 5%. Think NFL game day spreads, promo boosted parlays, 3/2 blackjack, $150 weekly poker MTTs, high RTP slots, etc.
This means out of the millions of Americans who gamble responsibly within their financial means as an form of entertainment, tons will hit a decent jackpot, parlay, or tournament; or cumulatively win back enough money to incur only a relatively small loss (minus 5-10%) yearly.
These folks will still be hit with a tax bill on *negative actual income*. Maybe it won’t be too much, but imagine being in the hole $1000 on a recreational activity on the year and then still owing the IRS $250 just for the privilege of losing money!
In fact, many within this threshold (which could be tens of thousands of people) may be compelled in December to gamble more as a “tax harvest” to either win 10% more than their losses or lose more than 10% of their winnings just to not get stuck with the burden.
Is this tax change not a responsible gaming issue then also? It’s basically saying it’s perfectly fine for you to be an addict punting away rent money on upwards of 30% holds but not only is there a penalty for gambling responsibly, we’re going to create conditions where you’re compelled to an addictive degenerate behavior just to potentially avoid an unfair expense.
I get it. Some people will vilify gambling even as a responsible recreational activity. Some will think that if you can’t afford to pay $500 extra in taxes on phantom income, you shouldn’t be gambling in the first place. But it’s no different than anyone’s hobby.
Imagine spending X dollars on fishing, crafting, yoga, or simply going out to the movies or bar every week - then having your CPA say “based on how much you spent on these activities (which includes sales tax), you owe $150 more to the government for no discernible reason”.
This tax change isn’t just an issue for “pros” or “sharps” or a sliver of 1% of the highest stakes folks who already are quite well off financially. If you buy a scratch off every so often or go to the casino with friends a few times a year or put down some parlays each week during football season, this still affects you too.