associate professor of economics @UCIrvine | international trade, labor markets, and some macro | 🇲🇽
Joined November 2018
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What do diff-in-diff event-study designs really tell us about the employment effects of min wages?
My new paper with @NeumarkEcon tackles this using the stacked design of Cengiz-@arindube-@attilalindner-@benzipperer and the related LP-DiD design in Dube-Lindner’s HLE chapter. 🧵
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What do diff-in-diff event-study designs really tell us about the employment effects of min wages?
My new paper with @NeumarkEcon tackles this using the stacked design of Cengiz-@arindube-@attilalindner-@benzipperer and the related LP-DiD design in Dube-Lindner’s HLE chapter. 🧵
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Why the difference? We show that CA and NY (1st and 4th most populous states) drive DL’s null results, pointing to heterogeneity rather than a zero MW effect.
Removing CA and NY, both weighted and unweighted estimates point to job losses, especially in the restaurant industry.
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To conclude, modern diff-in-diff methods yield the same old answer: minimum wages reduce jobs. The opposite finding in CDLZ and DL is the consequence of discretionary, narrow, and unsound researcher choices that favor that result.
Comments welcome. Link:
sites.socsci.uci.edu/~janton…
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My paper with Jha, Kala and @NeumarkEcon is now published at JUE. Min wages reduce restaurant jobs in most places, but bite less in larger cities. Ignoring city size overstates how much monopsony power softens these adverse employment effects. Open access:
doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2026.1…
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For a previous thread on this paper, see:
x.com/4ntonioR/status/192964…
2 Jun 2025
Takeaways from our new paper (with Jha, Kala, and @NeumarkEcon):
When estimating minimum wage effects on restaurant employment:
🔹 City size matters
🔹 Monopsony is better proxied by labor market fluidity than by employer concentration
nber.org/papers/w33862
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May 14
And this does not even account for the fact that most PhD students do not pay tuition (about 57k per year at Harvard).
What about the extensive margin effect of these strikes? At UCI, PhD enrollment declined 30.3% from F22 to F23 after the 2022 strike.
x.com/ashdgandhi/status/2054…
May 13
I'm a former Harvard PhD student. Based on my experience, current social science students probably make a bit over $250k healthcare over 5 years, with just 784 hours of required TA work. That's almost $320/hour for the "work" and the rest is classes and your own research.
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May 14
By discipline: Arts & Humanities (-23.2%), Engineering/computer sciences (-11.6%), Life sciences (-22.3%), Physical sciences/math (-39%), Social sciences (-50%), Other (-48.6%).
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By race/ethnicity: African American (-30.8%), American Indian ( 100% -- from 1 to 2), Asian/Pacific Islander (-41.4%), Hispanic/Latino(a) (-34.8%), International (-30.1%), White (-27.5%), Unknown ( 21%).
Source:
universityofcalifornia.edu/a…
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Jan 22
La mediocre y destructiva 4T. El Economist se quedĂł corto. La 4T nos ha traĂdo el peor crecimiento econĂłmico desde el sexenio de De la Madrid. Esos son casi 40 años, no un cuarto de siglo. Corruptos e incompetentes destructores de instituciones.
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Jan 22
Link al artĂculo: Mexico’s mighty left-wing government is floundering (from @TheEconomist)
economist.com/the-americas/2…
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Jan 21
Tomás Rau será el nuevo ministro del Trabajo en Chile🇨🇱. Gran economista, extraordinariamente listo e incisivo; además, una persona generosa y… también un fantástico guitarrista y cantante. Tomás es el “whole package”. Mejor elección, imposible.
Jan 21
Tomás Rau, ministro del Trabajo: Un acadĂ©mico con especializaciĂłn en economĂa laboral latercera.com/pulso/noticia/…
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Jan 12
“Much like the economics profession…” right, sure. Turns out the NYT has gotten it wrong before. The op-ed below relies on @arindube’s second-most-cited paper, which is not robust to a simple change in the definition of local labor markets, or to using a more complete dataset.
The New York Times, much like the economics profession, has updated its priors based on evidence on what happens when the minimum wage goes up.
Evidence summarized here : rfberlin.com/wp-content/uplo…
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Antonio Rodriguez retweeted
18 Sep 2025
A synopsis of our work on minimum wages and monopsony. We find evidence that frictions impact jobs effect of minimum wage, but properly accounting for city size, impact on jobs is negative almost everywhere. promarket.org/2025/09/18/acc…
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