Joined February 2019
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Seems the pain of market's less confidence on ID fiscal policy has been felt MoD. MoD plan to spend huge this year for defense equipment finance by foreign loan may not move forward. Only a few programs will move forward. Previously, MoD seems feel immune from fiscal challenges.
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Jun 13
Commencing in January 2027, JP will set up a new post in their embassy in Jakarta. The post is kind of the armament attache in FR Embassy. This move shows how serious JP is to exploit ID defense market. However, JP isn't really serious if they only want to sell hull for frigate.
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Jun 12
A JP senior defense official is in Jakarta to follow up previous meeting in Tokyo. Seems JP very keen to push for a defense contract with ID. Which equipment ID want to buy from JP? An old destroyer with only 76 mm gun? A new frigate with JP configuration or turkified one?
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Jun 11
Earlier this week KF-21 program stakeholders from ID and KR met in Jakarta to discuss all issues related to the program. Include the final installment of ID's cost share. MoF and MoD will determine later when payment will be disbursed. ID promise to pay by the 4th week of June.
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Jun 10
Contrary to opinion of a few people on social media today, ID hasn't paid the final installment of cost share of KF-21 to KR. Neither ID nor KR sources confirmed about the final installment payment by ID. ID MoD still work on this matter!!!
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Jun 10
It seems ID assume US$34.8 billion defense acquisition and market less confidence ID's fiscal policy are separate issue which has no connection at all. Huge risks are waiting if MoD to execute PSP this year. Remember, MoD has no power to control market. cnbcindonesia.com/opini/2026…
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Jun 9
ID badly needs new submarine which able to be commissioned in the near future. Some options are available, include from Fincantieri. Meanwhile, there will be differences in terms of capability if ID move forward with additional Scorpene compared to the current one. We shall see.
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Jun 8
Should ID move forward to buy ITS Giuseppe Garibaldi, how to utilize that carrier once commissioned in the ID navy? Helo carrier? UAV carrier? How about MRO? What is the right shipyard for MRO? Better listen to @GerryS explanation on these matters.
youtube.com/watch?v=IVWvf7PB…
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Jun 7
What is the favorite scheme for ID government on the latest iteration of PSP? ECA or FPC? It's utterly wrong if government preferred FPC under current development on ID economy. Who has confidence on ID fiscal policy? If ID government preferred FPC, fiscal consideration has gone!
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Jun 6
Whether ID can acquire all defense equipment with US$34.8 billion depend on IDR stability and ID outlook and rating. IDR exchange rate against USD, ID's outlook and rating determined by market and rating agencies. While PSP been issued, it's execution depend on mentioned factors.
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Jun 5
Let's see what happen in Tokyo between ID and JP. Should ID buy frigate from JP, there are concerns about price, frigate configuration, construction. Whether JP has willingness to export frigate with full JP made equipment, not just to export hull. Better not build frigate in ID.
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Jun 4
The fate of what called a CZ-made air defense radar for ID is unknown yet. Contract for 12 radars has been amended at least seven times. This is the risk if you chose unproven system. The radar never exists before. ID loves unproven system as long as it's adopted less compliance.
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Jun 3
MoF didn't projected yet how much defense budget for FY2027. IDR depreciation against USD will have big impact on defense acquisition in 2027. Forces readiness level will be affected too. US$34.8 billion of foreign loan still required RMP for execution. cnbcindonesia.com/opini/2026…
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Jun 1
Contrary to public opinion, LOIs for additional Scorpene, Rafale and GM400α hasn't sign yet during ID leader visit to FR last week. No daylight between ID and FR. It's more about not good optics amid ID's economics challenges. It may sign later this year if situation get better.
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Jun 1
ID is eyeing M-SAM II air defense systems from KR. The intention is to acquire two batteries with MFR, VLS, ECS and MLV components at minimum. We shall see when negotiation with LIG Nex1 start. M-SAM II is proven systems. Neither ID would be first export customer nor guinea pig.
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May 31
It's unknown whether any global rating agencies will downgrade ID debt rating. If one of them do rating downgrade, defense procurement's interest rate will be raised. According to a study, it will be about 138 bps. If a second agency do the same, it will add another 50-60bps.
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May 30
How much ID's absorption rate capacity for the US$34.7 billion foreign loan for 2020-2024 timeframe? It's less likely will hit 90 percent because some programs aren't clear due to a few factors. MoF hasn't issued data on absorption rate yet, so it's not clear at the moment.
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May 29
Look at ID government's FY 2027 budget guidance, information about defense budget is not available compared to previous years. No indicative ceiling for MoD as well as other ministries. It's once again demonstrated less transparency on defense spending has become a new normal.
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May 28
US offered ID for regional C-130 MRO is only for J version. However, it's just exploratory stages at the moment. Even on exploratory stages, US and ID already has a different opinion about KJT. ID emphasized on place, US emphasized on capability for J. cnbcindonesia.com/opini/2026…
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May 27
There's untold story about discourse on plan to build C-130 MRO in KJT. It's about facts never told to public by ID government officials. It's not about US military base as part of conspiracy theory developed by a few people. If those facts open, the big picture will be clear.
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