Thoughts on Stacks (blockstack:native) and markets:
- The four year cycle stays true. Bitcoin highs are muted but lows also likely muted.
- The AI models discovering bugs issue is real. Flight to safety will be a trend to watch.
- Bitcoin stayed simple with verifiable and transparent supply. All additional functionality can be built on top.
- Stacks optimized for safety and went for a decidable language (Clarity). Safety will end up being *the* thing to optimize for.
- There is likely going to be one maybe two Bitcoin L2s that take all/most of the traffic.
- After Bitcoin gets a quantum upgrade, depending on new signatures, Bitcoin bandwidth will likely decrease by 50%-97%; highlighting increased need for L2s.
- Bitcoin staking is a $100B market with increased demand for BTC on BTC yield coming from institutions and DATs.
- Stacks has seen two cycles before (1) mainnet launch (BTC smart contracts), (2) Nakamoto launch (speed & sBTC), now weβre working on (3) Bitcoin Protocol Bonds launch that unlocks the largest market yet.
- Last year, the ecosystem restructured for operational efficiency plus a new treasury. Stacks Labs is well funded, laser-focused, and hyped up about the new launch.
- Stacks is Lindy in crypto & Bitcoin at this point. Largest Bitcoin project by marketcap & active devs for 5 years. When BTC starts to recover, so will STX but as higher beta.
- Bitcoin might reach $150K-$250K next cycle (halving is early 2028) which is a 3-4x, Stacks is more in the 20-50x range given higher beta history and upcoming catalyst of Bitcoin Protocol Bonds. (Not financial advice and more on protocol bonds later).
- In the chart below, there were only three times in history for lowest entry points. Before mainnet when everything was unproven, before Nakamoto, and now.
- The upcoming SIP for protocol bonds launch will likely get accepted, with good feedback from community to drop/adjust the boosted rewards period (I support adjusting/removing this variable.)
Weβre buying here and then patiently waiting next 6-months for protocol bonds to go live, markets to bottom out, and our thesis of Bitcoin as the king asset with a thriving on-chain BTC economy to play out. Letβs go! π§