There's nowhere left to hide in crypto.
We have concluded that during the NFK Media-organised webcast roundtable with
@ThomasJeegers (
@relai_app), Albert Quehenberger (
@AQ_Forensics), and
@FlorianWimmerAT (
@blockpit_io).
To begin with, from 2027, up to 50 countries, including offshore havens such as the Seychelles and Cayman Islands, will automatically share crypto transaction data with each other.
If you've ever used a regulated exchange, your local tax authority will eventually know about it.
Next, as opposed to traditional finance where only large balances or high-value transfers get flagged, CARF covers everything.
Buys, sells, swaps, deposits, and withdrawals.
Regardless of the amount.
Also, the on-chain traceability doesn't equal to knowing who you are but that's changing.
Blockchain data has always been transparent and pseudonymous. CARF bridges that gap by linking on-chain activity to real KYC identities held by exchanges, and this gives authorities a full picture for the first time.
Unfortunately, the criminals will simply move to no-KYC methods, while "top 2% or top 5% of interesting cases where real money is to be made" will face more paperwork and may possibly encounter real safety risks.
(as seen in France, where a tax authority data leak led to over 100 Bitcoin-related kidnappings in a single year)
The real enforcement wave hits around 2028, since authorities will receive the first data in May 2027, but sorting through it takes time (done approx. by September).
Expect mass letters and enforcement actions to ramp up in 2028, targeting the top holders first.