China’s rise in biotech has been fast. Really, really fast. By 2024, for the first time, Chinese companies launched more novel medicines than any other country.
And by novel medicines, I mean a new active substance launched for the first time anywhere in the world. The hard part of drug development. Not generics, not a new indication for an existing drug, not a “simple me-too” molecule.
This would have been hard to imagine even a decade ago. Until recently, China was largely known for supplying the ingredients to build medicines. Not the actual novel medicines changing treatment paradigms.
That's completely changed.
We estimate China hit roughly four times the efficiency rate of the US in 2023, with ~16 novel drugs per $10B of R&D. In 2020, the two were at rough parity.
And big pharma is rushing to license what China is producing.
In 2020, China's share of big pharma licensing deals was just 2%. By 2025 that was 39%. And for 1Q26 it's tracking at 50%.
My take is there's a mounting sense of urgency for reform in the US: restoring and improving funding, incentives, and efficiency in drug discovery and development. Indeed, the competitive pressure from China could be one of the most important catalysts for reform of the American biotech industry.
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