Even with gold over $5k, we might still be in relatively early innings of a massive run on gold. If previous bull runs on gold are an indication, we are still looking at amazing 50% to 300% gains from here. If this is a more unique situation, it might even be bigger. Buys have mostly been from central banks, which have christened gold as the tried and true best ponzi in the world amidst the weakening dollar. That's why I don't think this is a blowoff top any time soon like most people think. I think only mostly the smart money is getting in, we are still in the 4th inning, and the dumb money is oblivious to the financial situation on the ground. With the gamblification of finance, everyone loves a good "runner". Think back to late 2020, early 2021 for crypto: when people were yeeting into coins every day on robinhood, and talk about crypto was nonstop. Or think back to GME when everyone piled on. We are not anywhere close to this level of mania and exuberance about gold. I think as gold and silver continues to run, attention on them will grow and metals have a chance to really, seriously rip, even from here. This is the power of reflexivity: if people decide, this is when the music is going to stop, everyone is ready to rip it in. With the size of the asset, all big money players are on the field too. The notion that "gold is real money" is not a new idea, it's actually an old idea - fiat is an experimental bubble. Ponzis depend on belief and a lot of this comes from the meme value, the strength of the narrative. Gold being the most lindy, being synonymous with wealth, its potency as a ponzi is unmatched. Gold simply has the best narrative in the zeitgeist. To use the now famous words ironically, when it comes to ponzis, "there is no second best." The best of course clearly being gold. Which brings us to BTC. Despite BTC having better technical factors, I don't see the same level of belief anymore. Nowadays people only bought crypto to get rich, sans belief, which means you dump reflexively on the way down because you dont believe in it. And even now those tourists are mostly gone. Plus, you can't even get multiples on it because everything else worth investing into (gold, ai, robotics) is ripping while BTC stays flat. This is really dangerous for BTC's long term future and could result in an Ethereum-like situation where it languishes for years before collapsing in price as people question the value of holding a risky asset for years without realized returns. There are now solutions to having an acceptably fast and secure blockchain that don't require a huge ponzi attached to it. Again, if somehow enough people believed BTC is real money worth saving their wealth into, then everyone is forced to own it eventually, but the problem is this belief doesn't seem to be growing like maybe there was a case for years ago, it seems to be shrinking. I don't know if bitcoin ultimately makes it or doesn't make it, but I prepare for both outcomes and I think it's risky to assume that bitcoin is a sacred cow that can't be slaughtered. I hope bitcoin makes it but I think owning gold (as well as tsla and goog) are slam dunk allocations that you need to be exposed to, and now isn't too late when you look at very high timeframes.

This Anthropic news makes it clear that there is no way to have any check and balance on these technologies anymore. You'll see gaslighting like "nah gpt6 is just a fancy autocomplete", and a deliberate squelching of any safety standards or assessment. I wasn't a fan of Yudkowsky-esque AI safety arguments made back in the day, but Dario's safety letter is probably correct, and it would be nice to have some sort of buy-in globally over this technology that might kill everyone. But seems like no one gives a fuck. The govt doesn't even work or make sense anymore anyways. While Mythos may not be world ending in itself, its clear that if models become extremely dangerous, there isn't really any way to contain it anymore, and such models may not be far behind given the pace of progress. Hopefully AI can find a solution.

Hard to read this as anything but retaliation for not playing ball with USG. If the US completely kills the ability for an American company to do business, they risk having those assets go to China or elsewhere.

Luxury charm. Will be insanely popular with women. Book it.

An insane but predictable stance from CFTC, which affirmed its intent to police insider trading on event contracts. Insider trading laws aren't about morality, they exist to protect market makers' profits. Curbing toxic flow can improve liquidity. MMs can simply choose not to make "insider" events, such as TIME Person of the Year. Venues can simply choose not to list these events. Every bid, ask, and list is voluntary. Incentivizing people who know the outcome is the whole point of a prediction market. Otherwise it is just gambling.

Look, if your agent is rocking a PFP under $100k plz don't @ me or share its opinion on my wall. Reality is it needs to work harder, move out of your mac mini, buy a few real PFP then share its opinion.

about the recent sbf pardonposting. think its clear ryan salame got raw dogged simply for refusing to testify against sam. imo thats a glimpse into that the us court system is more kangaroo than many want to admit. this is because they basically create the case that will lead to the result, then bully everyone into testimony. this is not justice, its a kangaroo court. i think people chunk the trial and then take sam's guilty verdict as proof that he stole the money, but his argument that he was not allowed to present evidence is also largely correct. actually, kaplan fucked him at every turn: didnt allow him to use "relied on lawyers" as a defense (negates intent), that customers will get paid back (negating harm), excluded solvency evidence, excluded discussion the 12th section of t&c that says if you agree to margin lend its risky and you may not get paid back, forced "dry run" of defense which is highly unusual to say the least, and many other things. imo kaplan is a highly suspicious judge. the trial narrative was largely a fiction constructed by prosecutors and s&c to stick all the blame on sbf. s&c is as smart as they are malicious and i wouldn't be surprised if they end up having contributed to this bad pr. imo it is not even controversial to say that what the jurors saw and heard is not anywhere an accurate portrayal of what happened. they think sbf stole all the money and disappeared. reality is a tiny fraction of the money was actually missing at the time (yes even valuing all sam coins at zero, valuing all claims as in kind, etc.), probably (my guess) from the alameda blowup within the margin lend system after the market giga puked. sbf was a sloppy ceo to the point that he was prob criminally negligent. but if he is a thief, where is the money? all these transfers are on chain, so there is always a paper trail. sbf at every turn tried to keep ftx afloat (pay customers), simply because it is in his own best interest to do so, so to me the motive component of fraud doesn't line up either. in fact if he didn't sign bankruptcy, i think ftx customers would of been paid faster and the whole shebang would still be running today (similar to bitfinex) as it was also a highly profitable business. at the end of the day how shady sbf lines up in the crypto hall of fame wouldn't even crack the top half. he was just a dude way in over his head that rose to his level of incompetence. but in this industry, might makes right, so the real mobsters get pardoned, guys like sbf get chewed up, and the system pats itself on the back. i don't have to agree with that system. i think ryan salame shouldn't be in jail for refusing to testify and for having no involvement with the customer loss of funds, getting ringed up on a chickenshit process crime and then the penalties tripled to make an example on their threatening him into submission. this to me is a completely uncontroversial opinion. similarly i don't think sbf's trial was remotely fair to him either. none of these views should be controversial but they apparently are, i think because people have bit so hard that this is the guy that stole the money. so its easy to say "fuck you, thief", it is easy to parrot the exact same slop opinion but i would invite anyone who disagrees, to ask ai about the trial and what happened, as all of the points i mention can be proven. i don't have any bone to pick either, i don't need to be proven right. i am simply reporting how i see it, and let that be that. free salame. free sbf.

Adam Cochran actually blew open the Epstein case quite a bit. He showed the US govt was covering it up (tape edit, barr suicide note). But there's another point I think many are missing. Remember that Dershowitz (Epstein's lawyer) told Acosta that Epstein belonged to "both U.S. and allied intelligence". Much focus has been put on the Israel side of that statement. But what is not well understood yet is the US side. The blackmail was not just for the benefit of Israel. It was for the benefit of the US deep state too, and why senior US officials went to great lengths to cover up. This I think will be shown in time.

Fuck.

The discussion of the killing of Alex Pretti is a massive distraction that appeals to emotion. The unspoken implication is, if you agreed that this was an unjustified killing, therefore all the ICE agents should withdraw, and the deportation crackdowns were a poor decision. That's why everyone on the side of maintaining the status quo, prefers to debate on that ground, rather than the more pertinent subject of how all the illegal aliens coming from one country and colluding en masse to find ways to defraud the taxpayer should be deported. I think the officers did not follow proper procedure, and these shootings were not justified, especially in the Peretti case. It's also sad that the govt has to play the other side of the propaganda war and gaslight. But for America to remain a country, they have to win this fight, which is ultimately an infowar, a fight for perceived moral superiority and the legitimacy of authority played out by propaganda and counter propaganda. It sucks that people are losing their rights, and it sucks that America trends towards a police state, but the alternatives are worse. America has a cancer and unfortunately sometimes the best course of action is amputation. The reality on the ground is the temperature has been pushed to the absolute maximum. And if cops are pushed to their limit, the next step is lawless zones. This raising of the temperature is not organic, but by design, to impede the progress of deportation. America hasn't had a truly organic protest since Occupy Wall Street. Now, it's all funded. Everyone has seen the massive destruction that unfettered immigration has caused the EU. These cities are only a hop and a step away from being lawless slum territory owned by gangs, tent cities, and everyone on welfare as everything collapses. Think "Chaz" Seattle on steroids. This is already playing out in major US cities, and it's what is at stake. If Trump fails, be careful what you wish for. You either get some do nothing mainstream politician that allows America to be fully looted, or more likely a even more extreme leader will emerge. Both are far worse for the country. The shootings not being justified, doesn't mean there isn't a huge reason to clean house. For most people they can't carry both ideas in their head. If this shooting is not justified, then their "team" is the bad one, etc. But for me, I don't care, I'll just call it how it is. It's a tragedy, but if you don't want to die, then stay home. And the truth that many are uncomfortable with, that few want to admit, is that yes, the killings were not justified, but just because I agree with that, doesn't mean I have to accept the forcefed Walz AOC conclusion that ICE needs to go home. Or Obama and Clinton telling everyone on Twitter to go out in the street and create more chaos and disorder. I don't accept these erroneous conclusions just because they "score a point" on a senseless killing. America must excise their tumor at all costs, or they won't be a country. If cops get rattled and open fire, it's a tragedy but it doesn't reverse what needs to be done. The temperature on the ground needs to be lowered, and it's being pushed intentionally to create resistance.

With ai slop yappers banned, it's a great time to start tweeting again.

Turning off the tap is the only solution. Except it won't happen. Why is the govt paying daycare companies $20-30k per kid per year? Even if it was legit (it's not) it's almost just as bad. Unfortunately nothing will happen and all these places are complete shitholes. It will only get worse, culminating in a debt default. That's a when, not an if.

thoughts about cooking steak. seems in hindsight so many things said about it were wrong? i remember ppl like gordon ramsay would babble stuff like, pinch your hand this firmness means well done. baste the steak that is already soaking in butter. dont touch the steak only put it down to flip once. rub a clove of garlic (as if that does more than an iota). use a ripping hot pan. rest your steak before cutting into it. all ideas that are later proven false via controlled experiment. i think we would all accept this stuff as fact, perhaps argument from authority, when it was actually just talking heads needing something to say, those were the incentives. good lesson, as it applies more than ever nowadays. recently i saw a chris young video on cryoseared steak, he showcased some methods like, put a sear from frozen, then low and slow (eg. airfryer) to finish. 30% juicier from the leidenfrost barrier, and sousvide-like result in terms of grey vs red. kind of amusing no one else figured this out for so long.

Hot take about $ to kids charity, instead of every kid gets $250 they should take tests in math, fitness, etc in high school and approx the top 1% of the field get $25k. Allocating resources to those most capable and likely to actually build something. Also give kids a target to fight for.

What's with all the AI slop posts talking about prediction markets all the time? Mildly annoying.