Not actually an HVAC professional. Heritage American with a touch of Campania. Longing for Constantinople since age 8.
Joined March 2015
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These trends in childlessness don't just reflect changing preferences. Due to earlier perimenopause, greater infertility, and higher rates of uterine fibroids than other races, Black women who postpone childbearing into their 30s will have increased difficulty conceiving.
Jun 10
At current rates of first births per women 15-44 (TMR), less than half of Black women in the US will have children. Meanwhile the Hispanic TMR has remained stable while Asians have fallen from near universal maternity to the same as the NH white rate.
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When lifespans are short and women marry young, this may be advantageous for collective survival. In the context of a society that highly values education and considers teen pregnancy a social vice, however, it results in a reproductive penalty.
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A society that establishes a norm of waiting until one's fourth decade to begin having children is one in which Black women will be at a reproductive disadvantage. Note one prominent anomaly here in among 40 , however (data from the CDC's release earlier this week).
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Peru's Ministry of Health (MINSA) reports 376,750 births in Peru for 2025, down from 390k in 2024, 410k in 2023, and over 485k in 2019. The national statistical institute INEI, which has just released initial 2025 census results, optimistically reports a TFR of 1.7.
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And preliminary census results here: cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/docum…
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The community note here is flat-out wrong. The CDC data for April 2026 (below) shows births to non-Hispanic white mothers at exactly 51.17%. The 47.8% was the percentage for the lowest month (November 2024), not for an entire year. Total fail on fact-checking, X.
May 29
🇺🇸 THE WHITENING OF AMERICA
After the Non-Hispanic White birth rate dropped to a record-low 47.8% of all American births during the Biden Administration, they’ve now skyrocketed by 3.37% up to 51.17% of all American births, as of April 2026.
This marks the first time in over 70 years that the Non-Hispanic White American birth rate has substantively increased.
Conversely, black and Hispanic birth rates in America have both seen a stark decline, while Asian birth rates in America have remained stagnant.
If this trend continues, the White American racial majority is set to significantly expand over the next several years.
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Over the past 30 years, US births to NH white women (which have only been distinguished from Hispanic whites in record-keeping since around 1990) have declined from approximately 60% to 50% of the total. Most of that decline occurred by the late 2000s.
May 29
This is just the baby boom 2nd echo
Baby boom occurred when the nation was 85% white, 30 years later their kids had a lot of white babies, now it’s the second echo 30 years after that
In 30 years we will see it uptick to 31% from 30% and people will get excited again
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With all that in mind, we can estimate that between 1965 and 1995, the share of births to NH white mothers declined from no more than 80% to 60%, and from 1995 to 2025, from 60% to 50%.
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For these trends, the most significant international demographic development over this time period was the fertility collapse in Latin America. In 1970, the TFR in Mexico and Central America, combined, was approximately 6.6. Today it is possibly under 1.6.
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