A decade in the game, still learning the ropes | Sharing thoughts on stocks, macro, geopolitics and more | Not Financial Advice
Joined August 2014
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Why some PSX companies beat inflation easily?
Companies in fertilizer, banks, oil, and essentials can raise their prices when costs increase.
This helps them protect their margins even during high inflation.
As a result, their earnings often grow more than inflation.
#psx
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Historically, PSX has delivered average returns of around 15-18% per year, mainly because of such strong companies.
Investing in the right sectors helps beat inflation.
#kse100
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Iran's official news agency just released the text of interim US-IRAN agreement. Visual breakdown below 👇
#IranWar‌ #OilMarket
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Fed holds rates unchanged, but the dot plot turns very hawkish.
9/18 officials now see at least 1 hike this year (6 see multiple).
Only 1 sees a cut. One didn’t submit
Fed appears to be bracing for elevated inflation levels
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Bloomberg claims to have obtained the 14-point US-Iran draft MOU. Summary attached below.
#IranWar‌
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Pakistan’s REER hit 106.15 in May 2026 (highest in ~7-8 years, since Sep 2018). Reminds many of the 2013-2017 overvaluation and the sharp devaluation that followed. But the full picture is much stronger today. Here's a clear comparison.
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Why Unlikely to Repeat 2017-18?
Surpluses strong remittances = healthier BoP (no acute pressure).
SBP’s smooth market-based exchange rate allows gradual adjustment.
Expect mild PKR softening, not a crash.
High REER remains a watchpoint for exports, but buffers exist.
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Bottom Line
2017 = Unsustainable (deficits extreme overvaluation).
2026 = More sustainable (surpluses moderate overvaluation solid reserves).
Still, focus on boosting exports & diversification is key.
Data: SBP EasyData / Arif Habib.
#psx #economy #investing #usdpkr
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Per Bloomberg, Under the US-Iran MoU signing Friday in Switzerland, Iran gets immediate Treasury waivers to sell crude, petrochemicals & derivatives. Oil export sanctions lifted right away. It may result in annual revenue of $60 to $70 Billion for Iran.
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At ~2M bpd pre-war exports:
2M Ă— 365 = 730M barrels/year
Ă— ~$78/bbl (Brent) = ~$57B gross.
With products: $60-70B/year.
Game changer for Iran?
#IranWar‌ #usiranwar #crudeoil #finance #investingfacts
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1/ How STPL IPO Unlocks Value for AIRLINK Shareholders
Air Link carries its STPL stake at PKR 8 billion in unconsolidated books - ~PKR 20.24 per AIRLINK share (395.27M shares). This carrying value should stay unchanged post-IPO. But real shareholder value may rise significantly.
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4/ Big gap vs PKR 20.24 in books. IPO creates transparent market price for STPL, enabling clear sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation. Analysts can now assign higher multiples to the manufacturing arm separately.
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Result: Stronger AIRLINK valuation, better transparency & growth from STPL's expansion. A possible value unlock.
#psx #kse100 #investing #finance
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Why low PE is not always cheap?
It is important to know why the PE of a stock appears low. It may be due to one-off high earnings or the market assuming the business is declining, which makes it look cheap.
Always dig into the reasons before falling for a #ValueTrap!
#psx #invest
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