Internet money games.
Joined October 2021
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Jun 15
Very sure anyone that sold off recent winners thinking they would buyback lower haven't managed to do so.
This tweet remains very true. We are in the final innings of the bear.
If you have identified potential winners over the next few years then all you have to do is hold on, and continue to monitor your thesis to ensure it remains true.
Just as you can get too greedy at the top, you can get too greedy at the bottom.
You don't get a 5-10x without being willing to stomach potential 30-40% drawdowns.
May 23
Can honestly say that trading assets in a bear market that I thought were great and going much higher at a later point was always a bad decision and a waste of time.
Pendle my biggest example from the previous cycle.
You feel like a genius for a few weeks/months and then you feel like a total moron a year later.
Repeatedly selling and buying back assets you believe in is extremely difficult. You will likely end up with less size in the asset and underperform having simply held.
Bear markets are not for getting cute. They are the best possible time to position at attractive valuations for longer time horizons.
Of course, you must be good at asset selection, and if you aren’t then selling bear market rips on vapour will of course be the right decision.
The previous cycle favoured traders. I lean towards this cycle favouring holders as we get much more concentrated flows into a few winners for longer periods of time.
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Jun 15
Previous ATH now turned into strong support after several successful retests.
You are doing yourself a disservice if you aren't focused on $HYPE HTFs.
LTF noise is full of foolish leveraged traders, who in the years to come will be devastated that they fumbled Hyperliquid.
If you are pattern matching other memecoins with zero flows and expecting the PA to match a project with ETF demand and 99% of revenue perpetually being used for buybacks then you are ngmi.
PA continues to resemble early BNB imo.
Hyperliquid.
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Jun 10
This is the era of crypto where you finally see large cap vapour trend to actual zero.
$7B FDV for Cardano is utterly ridiculous.
We still have a large number of bloated failed crypto infra projects trading at irrational valuations.
Part of making crypto investable again is returning vapour to where it belongs, and allowing cashflow positive apps to rise up the rankings.
This is a good thing. We should not have to feel embarrassed looking at the top 20.
Long revenue producing crypto assets with value accrual/short vapour historical infra remains a good long term trade.
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Jun 8
BTC isn't really trading up because the purchase is good news, because it isn't particularly good news.
It's bouncing because it was extremely oversold, in a good area for a technical bounce after sweeping Feb lows, and the Strategy buy is removing the specific "Saylor is now a seller" fear that the 32 BTC sale introduced.
It looks like this low will hold for a while to me, but also perfectly plausible that we make a slightly lower low in June before a rally, if we get a bigger stock market shakeout.
This level will be temporary before we see a final low later in the year imo.
It's easy to get fixated on Saylor and Strategy, but they will not need to sell all of their Bitcoin. They may need to sell some to cover some obligations, but any substantial % of their supply being sold is most likely bear porn.
Jun 8
Strategy has acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million to increase our $BTC Reserve to ₿845,256. We have also increased our USD Reserve by $100 million to $1.0 billion. $MSTR $STRC strategy.com/press/strategy-…
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Jun 8
People buying ZEC in a year will have no idea that this bug was patched and led to a fud storm, in the same way that people who bought BTC years after GOX, inflation bugs and numerous other "existential" events, had no idea about any of that.
Discourse in the moment is almost always too emotional, and overblown. It's even worse in the Elon bucks age where the incentive is to promote the doomer view.
Incorrectly extrapolating present events and their impact long into the future is one thing humans are consistently bad at.
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Jun 6
Most likely outcome to me at the end of this bear market is Saylor is neutered.
That means the market takes away his ability to ever buy BTC in size in the future, which will stop the fixation on him.
That can come about in many different ways.
He doesn’t need to be a seller. The market needs to feel satisfied that he can’t accumulate more BTC, which means that his BTC pile likely just reduces over a very long time horizon.
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Jun 5
Always worth paying attention to the coin that all of CT are hating on by using fake information for engagement.
My initial reaction was that a smart team is trying to solve a very difficult engineering problem, and managed to harden their protocol by patching a critical bug.
Despite it being highly probable that this wasn't exploited by anyone else, people are writing that it was, as if it is a fact. And there will be proof soon enough for anyone to verify the supply and settle the matter.
Reminds me of Solana in 2022 fighting downtime and the ridicule they received. Every bad moment ended up as a positive as they accelerated their timeline in becoming the most scalable L1.
Not saying it will play out the same way, but there are a lot of people very happy on the timeline that a coin is going down. Food for thought.
Worth making up your own mind, and paying no attention to what anyone says on here.
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Jun 5
Zero chance today’s crypto zoomers would have made it with Bitcoin.
The amount of bugs and existential events that Bitcoin had to overcome of the years was crazy.
There’s a certain fragility with the current discourse about vulnerabilities/bugs/bad events in crypto.
Maybe it’s a generational lack or resilience, or a lack of belief in the mission with more of a focus on making money quickly, or the reward for writing more doom focused opinions due to Elon bucks and algo engagement.
Nothing in crypto makes it to the big leagues or changes the world, without going through the most torturous path of surviving every bad event you can imagine.
Becoming anti-fragile is very rare, and very hard.
Jun 5
The potential ZEC exploit was quite serious but similar vulnerability was hotfixed on BTC too few years back
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Jun 5
Crypto getting its final nasty bear market arc before apathy sets in.
The realization that everything is vulnerable (cryptography, smart contracts, VMs etc) to some extent due to how quickly the latest AI models are able to parse and find bugs.
In the short term this makes every investor nervous, no matter what they hold, which is completely understandable, as it’s a race against the bad guys.
But in the long term this will bring hardened security like this industry has never had before.
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Jun 5
BTC Saylor death spiral and quantum fud
HYPE US regulatory fud
ZEC infinite mint bug
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Aylo retweeted
Jun 2
As much as I would like to believe this, it gets said every bear market, and it usually preludes apocalyptic price action.
Only $HYPE and maybe $VVV ( don't know how defensible the revenue is) could conceivably decouple due to having a product with PMF, which isn't necessarily reliant on crypto speculation.
The rest of the list will eventually feel the pain of BTC going down as the participants holding those coins will not hold if Bitcoin legs down further, and they lack external positive flows.
Let's see what happens.
Jun 1
THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT.
I’ve seen 3 full cycles and the one thing that sticks out about this cycle is how certain major altcoins are moving against BTC.
Coins like;
$HYPE
$ZEC
$TON
$INJ
$VVV
$JTO
Etc
All moving up while Bitcoin is taking a hit.
It feels like finally the whole industry may not just be around one token.
It’s a sign of long overdue maturation.
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Jun 4
Hayes has traded in and out of $HYPE over the last year.
He has made less than if he held.
Many such cases.
Jun 4
I just dumped my entire $HYPE and $NEAR position, I will explain why in my essay "Reality Test" dropping next Tuesday.
TLDR:
- Higher energy prices due to Iran war and inventory restocking
- 3 Mega AI IPOs between now and early Q3
- Prediction that Trump goes anti-AI to win mid-terms for Republicans
- I think highs in mrkts will happen btw now and September
- Time to take profit, and two-step in beefa without worrying about my positions
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Jun 4
The 200W MA has now come into play for bitcoin:native
It came quickly as soon as it was in sight.
We are now close enough to a cycle bottom in price (something like the green box), but I believe we still have months of disinterest and apathy ahead.
My original base case was ~$55k BTC for the bottom.
I think the worst case scenario only plays out with continued Saylor mistakes.
Regardless, we are in DCA territory.
There are always narratives and explanations when BTC is at this point in a bear market for why it's over forever.
Ignore them.
Bitcoin is anti-fragile.
It is a cockroach asset that survives and will thrive once again.
Mar 18
Patience is the hardest part of the bear.
If you study previous bear markets then one thing is consistent: time.
It takes time to work through a Bitcoin bear. We've been trending down for 5 months. Major BTC downtrends of have historically lasted an average of 9 months, with the longest around 12–13 months.
We end up grinding higher the majority of the time and then just get whacked down to an eventual lower low in days. The progress is slow and the damage is fast.
I think our best case scenario would be a double bottom around the most recent low of $60k, and more time with excruciating sideways action. A ~52% drawdown from ATH would be the shallowest bear ever, but consistent with cycle compression.
Base case scenario is a lower low, possibly around $55k months from now. 200WMA will be close to there and act as strong support with many buyers interested.
Worst case scenario would be $40-45k in my mind, which would materialize if macro really turns. Even at -65% from ATH, this would still be an improved drawdown vs 2022's -77%.
I don't believe we will close a monthly candle below $60k.
You don't need to worry about pico bottom at all. Just set limits, chill and manifest your future upside in the years to come.
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Jun 3
Blocks are being produced.
Why is our industry unable to do any due dilligence before posting?
Seen multiple news outlets reporting the same thing without checking.
All so tiresome.
Squeeze the shorts I guess.
Jun 3
INTEL: ZCASH NETWORK IS DOWN, NOT PRODUCED ANY BLOCK IN THE PAST 4 HOURS
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Jun 3
Select alts season being created by flows from "overvalued majors".
Money exiting those majors has to flow somewhere.
Temporary phenomena, or is it the death of the L1 thesis and value flowing to more "worthy" tokens?
I think we have a revaluing and reordering in crypto personally.
There's so much bloat in major valuations, and unconvincing valuations based on current metrics and value accrual.
I think "worthy" tokens will grind up over a long period of time, as crypto natives capitulate out of old valuation frameworks.
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Jun 3
Two consecutive days near $500m is huge.
So much for the ETF buyers being diamond handed hodlers.
Turns out they are panic sellers just like everyone else.
Bitcoin death being pronounced everywhere.
I will take the other side, and predict that BTC will not die, and we shall run it back from goblin town once again, but not before more capitulation.
Bitcoin has a habit of forming a final bear market low with a proper bang.
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Jun 3
One of the teams that executed very well last cycle will likely continue to execute very well again this coming cycle.
Whilst we are in the doldrums, don't get too bearish on good teams and good products, especially ones in the early stages of huge adoption trends like stablecoins.
This is often where the max opportunity lies if you can look ahead 12-18 months.
Ethena and @coinbase have partnered to grow onchain finance and savings products for their 100m userbase, with the first growth initiative launching next week.
Alongside this partnership Coinbase Ventures have also made their first investment into Ethena on the open market.
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Jun 2
Still holding my $LIT.
It was indeed undervalued and under appreciated.
Think that is beginning to change.
May 20
$LIT is the only thing I've been holding underwater for the last month or so.
Well, not underwater anymore, but it just seemed undervalued, or at least worth giving a shot, considering the tech, revenue, buybacks and product is decent.
We have so few coins with the above criteria.
Will also benefit from regulatory clarity, and be an attractive onchain trading venue for institutions.
BTC doesn't look great, so might not get a proper breakout.
Ready to be punished again.
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