Joined June 2010
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20,283 Photos and videos
Model is treating Curacao like a slot machine at the moment and 3rd place teams with 3 points and big goal differential get in.
I don’t think they can be..
They lost G1.
They can’t be >90% to qualify from here..
Surely ..
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Updated full WC sim
The new numbers are more reflective since instead of an average ELO for the historical data, they're built on the day of projection.
Argentina and Spain pick up.
Japan at 12 and the US at 13 to win the Cup are interesting.
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2,548
Added day off Elo numbers to the database and quarter unit sizing (for the longshots).
Shifted the bet for tomorrow a bit.
World Cup 2026 Model v1 (Notes follow):
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
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1,643
They're fine
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3,036
Full WC sim after today's games:
Sorted by Advance odds and title odds.
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2,041
0-4 day
The model giveth but the Crossbar and Conmebol taketh away.
69 units bets 4.4 units up
World Cup 2026 Model v1 (Notes follow):
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
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1,784
it's funny that the projected margin for 5 games pre series was Knicks 9 and it ended Knicks 12
NBA Finals Full sim
I added in individual calculations for rest.
Short rest hurts SA.
Knicks to win it all at 60% (Knicks in 6)
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Cruel Angel PHD🇵🇷 retweeted
Jun 14
Jalen Brunson and the Ewing Family
Jun 14
Rick Brunson: "I'm gonna stop the argument too, no disrespect, I love my son, Patrick Ewing is the greatest Knick that I've ever witnessed.”
Kenny Smith: "Well, I'm gonna say it, it's gonna be debatable now.”
(h/t @MrBuckBuckNBA)
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5,831
213,019
Bridges? No. Kat? Yes
You were a fan of the bridges trade? The kat trade? I wasn't a fan of most their moves at the time. It's surprising they were able to build a d this good after last yr
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The Knicks filled the roster w/ EV advanced stats players while getting rid of all the overpriced players that teams typically would let the sunk cost fallacy keep them on.
Without letting analysis paralysis stop them.
The RJ Barrett trade is a microcosm of what they did right.
Jun 14
It’s fun that there are basically zero lessons any team can take from the Knicks. You can’t plan to rebuild by signing a guy who’s been raised from birth to be your specific team’s savior, who then becomes a superstar overnight — and THEN takes a $113m pay cut to sign his buds.
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I love the uniforms on both sides of this Germany/Curacao game
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playing the draw and Curacao
but your play is very good
Jun 14
Thanks for the plays you beast!
I take it you’re playing curaçao 3.5, 2.5 1.5? Love to hear how you’re playing it
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Cruel Angel PHD🇵🇷 retweeted
Jun 14
There are always, always lessons to be learned from the playoffs re: draft philosophy, but 8 different champions in 8 seasons with 8 very different number one options really should tell you that there's no *one* way to draft stars.
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Honestly? Aussie should have had 3 goals.
Every build was out of a midfield mistake to solid action.
Jun 14
Turkey had almost all of the possession and tons of chances and pressure, but Australia scores two goals against the run of play.
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2,974
4-4
45 units bet
28.4 units up
63% ROI
World Cup 2026 Model v1 (Notes follow):
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
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5,653
Joe then Mitch then Doc then a space then Bud (who improved)
Jun 14
Who's worse in playoffs, Mitch or Budenholzer?
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2,048