Where supply vs demand actually stands in optics right now, straight from the latest earnings calls.
$LITE is sold out. Their CEO quantified undershipping demand by more than 30% and said they are having to choose which customers to support. EML capacity is locked in LTAs through 2027.
$AAOI is scaling from 100k to 930k units per month by end of 2027 and still forecasts demand exceeding capacity through mid 2027.
$COHR has bookings into calendar 2028 and is doubling indium phosphide capacity twice in 18 months. They called the InP constraint industry wide.
$FN said demand far exceeded what they were able to ship and named the constraint as lasers, not assembly.
$CIEN backlog hit $7.7B, up $2.6B in six months.
$CSCO raised hyperscaler AI orders from $5B to $9B mid year.
Add it up and the 800G/1.6T market is running roughly 27 to 30% undersupplied. If CPO is pushed to 2028, this is the supply chain that carries the entire AI buildout for two more years.
Sold out, with no replacement coming.