It's now clear to all but a few lunatics that memecoins are done Prediction markets have taken their place in the heart of degens, just like memecoins took NFT's Yet every time you point this out, a demented memecoin fanatic screeches out in reply : "But brother ! I have seen people make x1000 in a day on memecoins, Prediction Markets are child's play ! " And yes : - he's probably talking about a fake screenshot he saw on his timeline - It was made on the back of a 99.6% loss rate retail audience that has since deserted the market But no matter how unhygienic and mentally ill he is. He still has some sort of a point. Facts are, although extremely rare, these things do happen and there is a certain kind of degen audience that lives only for it. So how do we reach them ? 1) Problem The upside on a single market is fundamentally capped, in theory at 1000x, in reality, at much less. The cheapest you can buy a share on Polymarket is in theory $0.001 (0.1c), if they go to the max of $1 then it's a 1000x But even now you will have an extremely hard time finding a counter party that wants to buy the opposite side at $0.999. When trading fees are introduced it will make even less sense for traders to buy shares at $0.999 since fees will eat all their profit So introducing even smaller denominations wont increase the multiple potential 2) Solution Derivatives. We need Derivatives. But we can't have perps on single markets with capped upside and an expiry date ( They are called Perpetuals for a reason) That's why we created Perpetual Prediction Vaults at @ZEITFinance, you invest not in a market but in a fund that constantly reinvest the proceeds in new markets. The vault can be operated : - By a good trader - According to predetermined strategy - By a bot or statistical model It doesn't really matter. What matters most is that we have transformed the single market outcome into a continuous price series. Now we can tokenize it. Which means we can plug it in all the existing DeFi eco, including perps. This way : > there is no limit to how much you can make. > the memecoin schizo can shut up > the degen can chase his 10000x As you see we worked very hard to kill the memecoin reply schizo and every minute of it was worth it

🆕 New project added to the prediction markets wiki Ember @emberfyi publishes locked AI forecasts for live prediction markets 📊 It tracks model calls with Brier scores, divergence views, resolved outcomes, and a read-only API

TLDR deep dive into @ZEITFinance under the hood, came out pretty elegant imo: A minimal onchain share vault (boring-vault pattern: Vault Teller Accountant FeeManager) wrapped around an offchain solver that turns Polymarket trading into a clean ERC-20 you can deposit into. One atomic roll Every epoch, ALL deposits withdrawals settle in a single rollEpoch tx. Shares get bulk-minted once, then each user claims their cut with an O(\log n) Merkle proof instead of N onchain writes. Trustless data availability The full claim set every Merkle proof is archived to Arweave; only the roots the Arweave URI go onchain. Result: any roll is independently replayable, and you can self-serve your claim even if our servers are down. Real mark-to-market NAV doesn't just trust mid prices - it simulates selling each position into the live CLOB order book (slippage & fees aware) to get a realizable share price. Omnichain shares, no bridge pool. Vault shares ARE a native LayerZero OFT - lock on Polygon, mint on the destination chain. Sign one EIP-712 intent and a relayer does claim-and-bridge for you, with the claim bridge params cryptographically bound to that one signature Shout out to @dvinubius @micovi7 to get this designed and built (before Mythos)

If you've tried combos on Polymarket you probably got hit with this error "⚠️Combo unavailable, there are currently no available quotes" This is not a bug but simply due to how combos are implemented. Combos are not a simple multiplication of odds across markets. If leg one is at 50% and leg two is at 50% it doesn't necessarily mean that the fair value of the parlay is 25% (0.5*0.5=0.25) For independent football matches this naive approach might work because they are mostly uncorrelated. But what if they want to expand the system to other markets ? For example : "US Iran peace deal" -> 50% "Iran opens the strait of Hormuz" -> 50% Peace deal Hormuz Combo = 25% ??? Not at all, everyone understand that these events are highly correlated, the fair odds of the combo are almost the same as those of a single leg There is no automatic way to compute these correlations, so market makers must make the call on what every individual combo is truly worth. But the number of combo is *combinatorial* 10 leg parlay from 20 possible markets = 20! / 10! * (20 - 10)! = 184756 possible combos No market maker can quote all of that, so you will never have combo for every market combination Only the most popular ones

How does ZEIT Finance value vaults to issue tokens? 🤔 While market price is whatever someone is willing to pay, the fundamental value is its redemption value: a pro-rata share of the Vault’s Net Asset Value (NAV). Here’s how we calculate it fairly: 👇

ZEIT SEASON

This is actually a very sound strategy. "Fan bias" is a very well observed phenomenon in sports gambling. Fans are known to consistently overestimate the odds of their team winning. For them gambling is not just about return, it's a statement of support for they team. They pay for the thrill of supporting their home team with extra stakes and if you are willing to take the opposite side, you are the one they will pay. Footaball World Cup is the perfect market to capitalize on this : - big inflow of retail money - nationalism produces strong emotional attachment that could's judgement - national team's fan base are decorrelated from their performances. Good clubs have big fanbases because they keep winning but national team's fanbase are determined by their countrie's crowd, regardless of performance. Good trading is all about exploiting known inefficiencies, especially in retail rich environments.

NO WAY !

The big loser of the World Cup wars is Hyperliquid Their "World Cup winner" market is sitting at an embarassing $5K daily volume. For comparison : - Polymarket -> $90.1M - Kalshi -> $13.1M That's 2600x lower than @Kalshi and 13000x lower than @Polymarket the world cup was supposed to be HIP-4's big breakout event, but it seems like the are missing the mark. This was predictable looking at their UI. You can't attract the kind of retail flow that fuels the football markets with a UI that looks like a perps exchange. Look at Polymarket's world cup UI for comparison and it all becomes clear @HyperliquidX needs to revamp their HIP-4 UI quick if they wanna profit from this event

FatMbappe is going institutional 🏆 My $FAV8 World Cup Vault is live on @ZeitFinance. We’re buying equal YES shares across the top 8 World Cup favorites. Current basket: ~81¢. Payout if one of them wins: $1. Target gross upside: ~23.5% before fees. 🧵🧵🧵

Klashi getting MOGGED so hard by @polymarket They literally have 15x the volume on the world cup winner market - Polymarket : $1.8B volume - Kalshi : $121M volume (🤣😭) How is this possible ? Kalshi is supposed to be the SPORTS platform. The rest of their categories are irrelavant, how can they lose so hard on their own turf ? @kalshi you gotta up that game, this is not a good sign when sport is your only moat

Reports are coming out that Polymarket has started blocking VPNs If this is real this will leave a huge chunk of users out of the prediction markets game Polymarket is right now banned in 40 countries including : - the US - most of the EU - most of Asia - Russia - China (which blocks polymarket on their end) in theory there are 200 countries left, but most of those don't account for much volume. The vast majority of capital resides in this geoblocked countries. I didn't know anyone that experienced VPN blocks, so maybe they just banned a few of the most popular ones and called it a day, which would be the good option. If it was just a first step and @polymarket is getting ready for a major crackdown on VPN this could lock out the majority of users on the platform I hope those reports are exaggerated because I suspect most of the whales don't reside in Africa or South America

Something big later today!

🛠️ For Creators: Tokenize whatever you believe. Reflect your bets across prediction markets and capture your view of reality in a single token. Prefer to automate? We offer a robust API so you can execute your strategies seamlessly via bots and algorithms. 🤖

Vault at @ZEITFinance are tokenized Which means your ownership shares are represented as regular tokens that can be held in your wallet on your chosen chain (Polygon, Arbitrum, Ethereum) This also mean they can be traded, leverage, lent and plugged in all sort of other DeFi usecases For this reasons we offer the possibility for vault creators to set a risk profile for their vault, ranging from Degen to Risk-managed. This risk profile is an indicator for potential DeFi usecase : - Risk-managed vaults make for better DeFi collateral - Degen vaults offer the max upside potential Algorithmic vaults are an exception because their risk profile is determined by the underlying algorithm, so you should always read up on it first