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SpaceX's market cap has overtaken Bitcoin's. Meanwhile, miners are moving into the stress zone. Risk On/Off stayed in the red all week, Exchange Netflow came in at -20.9K BTC and seller pressure is still there.
But the market is bouncing off $60K on short liquidations. So what is this - the start of capitulation, or just a dead-cat bounce?
Puell Multiple gives a clear answer, and it shows how far we still are from the bottoms of past cycles. The full breakdown of the signals and the Weekly Engine verdict on Bitcoin is inside.π
substack.com/@adlerscryptoinβ¦
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𧡠BTC: this is still not capitulation (βοΈ ADLER AM Weekly Summary)
1/9 Bitcoin is down 22% from its May highs. $12B in capital has left the network. Losses have now been locked in for 25 straight days.
And this is still not capitulation. Here is why the market has only gone part of the way so far π
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9/9 Now comes the main question.
If Puell drops below 0.50 and BTC breaks below $55K, forced miner selling will begin. Historically, that is where the real bottom formed - both in 2018 and in 2022.
Are we heading there? Or is this already it?
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Follow me @AxelAdlerJr for daily Bitcoin market structure updates.
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Global Risk On/Off is neutral this morning. I think the de-escalation of the conflict is linked to the president's statements against the backdrop of expectations around the SpaceX IPO.
According to internal sources, around 372 tankers remain blocked in the Persian Gulf, carrying 26 million tons of hydrocarbons on board.
terminal.axeladlerjr.com π
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Investors who saw gold as a safe-haven asset misjudged it slightly. Against that backdrop, Bitcoin looks more predictable, as its price action tends to follow bullish and bearish cycles around the halving.
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Infographic on current market conditions.
-22% in BTC is not noise.
BTC is flowing onto exchanges: 114K.
Stablecoins are leaving: -105M.
Supply up, demand down. This is structural.
βοΈ Morning Brief #190 π
axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-is-mβ¦
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-22% in BTC is not noise.
BTC is flowing onto exchanges: 114K.
Stablecoins are leaving: -105M.
Supply up, demand down. This is structural.
βοΈ Morning Brief #190 π
axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-is-mβ¦
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A visual guide to the current market for Bitcoin miners.
Puell Multiple has fallen to 0.74, while miner revenues have contracted by 11% in just 10 days.
But the market still has not reached a capitulation on the scale of 2022.
Where is the line between stress and survival mode? In the new Morning Brief, we break down what is happening with miners right now and how their metrics compare with past cycles π
axeladlerjr.com/the-puell-muβ¦
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Puell Multiple has fallen to 0.74, while miner revenues have contracted by 11% in just 10 days.
But the market still has not reached a capitulation on the scale of 2022.
Where is the line between stress and survival mode? In the new Morning Brief, we break down what is happening with miners right now and how their metrics compare with past cycles π
axeladlerjr.com/the-puell-muβ¦
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Axel ππ Adler Jr retweeted
Jun 10
Happy Wednesday.
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The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the key measures of inflation, rose to 4.2% year over year.
A month earlier, the figure stood at 3.8%.
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Major Terminal v1.7 update.
We added the Cycle Radar tab - a panel designed to help you make better decisions: not sell at the cycle bottom, not buy at the peak, not fall for FUD, and not get caught in shakeouts during fake rallies.
Under the hood - on-chain and market data assembled into a convenient, easy-to-read dashboard.
substack.com/@adlerscryptoinβ¦
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