Finding an economic off-ramp to avert a US-Iran war
♦️Economic considerations appear to be taking over political and security calculations in the
#US approach to Iran, particularly as negotiations between the two sides gather pace. Beneath the visible choreography of diplomacy lies a steady American preoccupation with energy access—an undercurrent increasingly taking centre stage in negotiations.
♦️Only days before the second round of indirect nuclear talks between the US and Iran commenced in
#Geneva, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Diplomacy Hamid Qanbari declared that Tehran seeks a nuclear agreement with the US capable of yielding tangible economic benefits for both parties.
♦️Against this backdrop, negotiations have broached the topic of prospective cooperation in oil and gas fields, investment in mining, and even the purchase of aircraft. Initial sessions proceeded without American nuclear specialists in attendance, while figures such as Steve Witkoff, the US’s special envoy to the Middle East, and Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of US President Donald
#Trump, known for their economic and strategic advisory roles, were front and centre.
♦️Iran ranks 15th worldwide in mineral reserves, estimated at approximately 60 billion tonnes, according to the Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organisation (IMIDRO). The country hosts more than 10,000 active mines and possesses over 68 minerals, including extensive deposits of iron ore, copper, zinc, and rare materials essential to advanced industries.
♦️If Trump finds a way to draw Iran away from
#China and
#Russia, he could very well sell this as a win to his base and leverage this as an off-ramp to avert war.
♦️Iran holds an estimated 3.8 billion metric tonnes of iron ore, equivalent to around 1.9% of global reserves, according to the United States Geological Survey. Data from the IMIDRO indicate that the country also possesses 2.6 billion metric tonnes of copper reserves, accounting for approximately 5% of the world's total, alongside substantial zinc reserves estimated at about 15 million tonnes, which is a significant deposit in the global zinc market.
♦️Iran also has confirmed deposits of cobalt and nickel in the provinces of Zanjan and Kerman—minerals that underpin modern technological and defence industries, including aircraft production, advanced weapons systems, semiconductor manufacturing, automotive batteries, construction materials, and medical applications. Iran also has abundant coal, ferrous metals, sand, gravel, chemical minerals, and salt.
♦️Additionally, Iran's geographical position endows it with exceptional strategic weight. At the crossroads of West Asia, it borders
#Afghanistan and
#Pakistan to the east;
#Iraq and
#Türkiye to the west; Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkmenistan to the north; and the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman to the south, with access to the Indian Ocean.
♦️For its part, Iran understands the economic lens through which Trump sees the world and therefore will utilise it to its advantage in negotiations with the US. It will be seeking significant sanctions relief, and will not surrender its economic leverage so easily unless it secures said relief.
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