Joined August 2021
- Tweets 414
- Following 470
- Followers 1,350
- Likes 21,435
183 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
8 Dec 2025
Round 2 Dashboard is now live on BBMPortfolio.
- Track all your advancing teams for Week 15
- Full roster details, builds, stacks, projections
- ROI calculator through the playoffs
- Week 15 player exposures
Great for an early read on where you stand heading into BBM Round 2.
15
9
88
23,514
Jun 10
Unsigned free agents and anticipated trades are never fully "priced in" by best ball markets.
AJ Brown to NE was reported for months by reputable sources, and he STILL jumped from WR11 to WR8 when it went official.
Recent summers are full of examples:
3
13
5,098
Jun 10
For 2026, this means Diggs (WR55, 133 ADP) and Deebo (WR66, 165 ADP) are underpriced. When they sign, their ADPs will jump and early drafters will post exposure screenshot victory laps.
Aiyuk (WR76, 189 ADP) is the wild card. But if he DOES leave SF, his price will skyrocket.
1
2
414
Malik Washington is the latest drafted WR1 for a team in best ball history (ADP 194.1!) But I'm still not buying. Look at the last 5 "latest WR1s" by ADP and how they panned out.
Historically, when the market hard fades a WR room like this, STAY AWAY.
14
3
73
11,148
Late WR1 success falls off a cliff past a certain point. Through round 11, a team's WR1 finishes ~WR30 on average- solid.
But round 12 or later and the median finish is WR104, complete garbage. Small sample size, but it's happened enough that I'm out on the rd 17 Miami WRs.
1
1
803
Buying the last WR1 off the board has never worked. But plenty of mid/late WR1s by ADP have smashed. Here's the list:
1
4
692
Conventional wisdom: high volume sharps dominate Best Ball Mania. In 2025, that was true- max entry players advanced at a much higher clip than casuals. But in 2024, max-entry drafters were the WORST performing group in the tournament, stomped by casuals.
The reason? Zero-RB 🧵
2
4
56
7,700
Looking at 2026, it's hard to argue that zero-RB comes back. RB supply in the first 5 rounds is the highest it's been in 5 years. Which means if you're waiting until round 6 to draft your first RB, you're drafting the RB26 by ADP.
For zero-RB truthers out there- good luck.
1
5
937
So is zero-RB dead? Not entirely, but the data shows that zero-RB only works with elite late RB production, regardless of how much of the field adopts it.
Whether it's a more efficient market or just variance, there haven't been any cheap elite RB hits since 2023.
7
9
11,297
May 25
Getting the first pick in best ball may be cursed.
Take a look at BBM advance rate by draft slot for the last 5 years.
A lot of bad injury luck baked into this, but still shocking to see how bad the #1 spot has been over such a long stretch (9.9%!)
9
3
61
12,732
May 25
The exception to this list is Christian McCaffrey in 2022. 28% of lobbies drafted him first overall that year instead of Jonathan Taylor. 20.3% of those teams advanced, and CMC finished as RB2 (behind only Austin Ekeler).
More historical analysis and a new site coming soon.
2
821
May 25
Check out the consensus 1.01 picks for the last 5 years.
Crazy how heavily concentrated first pick exposure has been, especially last year. 92% of lobbies drafted Ja'Marr Chase first overall in 2025.
This year, Gibbs/Bijan will likely make up 90% of 1.01s
5
666