I get it but like I've said, BTC never had a new ATH before the halving either, and never had such a muted bear market with only 8x from the low. If there's ever a time that low pattern breaks, this would be it.
Additionally, falling all the way to ~40k would put BTC at ~30% beneath the 200-week MA, which has never happened before. The 200-week is still holding, and has so far for this entire cycle, aside from a brief wick beneath it last week. It would also be over 40% beneath the last cycle's ATH, which has also never happened before, not even close.