The US unemployment rate is set to rise further:
11% of US small businesses reported "poor sales" as the single most important problem in February, near the highest since 2020.
This ranks as the 4th-most cited problem, behind only taxes, quality of labor, and inflation.
The percentage has tripled over the last 3 years and is now in line with past recession levels.
Historically, this has been a leading indicator of rising unemployment, as small firms are the largest employer in the economy.
This suggests the unemployment rate could surge above 5% over the next several months, from the current 4.4%.
That would be the highest level since mid-2021, amid the pandemic recovery.
Small businesses are struggling.