California Politics Reporter @Sacbee_news. Virginia native. Not to be trusted with fragile objects. Reach out anytime: ben.paviour@sacbee.com.
Joined June 2010
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Jun 11
Today's Cal/IGS poll seems to back up the notion that Steyer failed to win over his top target: self-described progressives.
Jun 10
The wealth that enabled Steyer's candidacy also made him an awkward populist messenger.
But Steyer was also hurt by other factors, including the perception among voters (not shared by all orgs) that Becerra was a stalwart progressive.
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Jun 10
The wealth that enabled Steyer's candidacy also made him an awkward populist messenger.
But Steyer was also hurt by other factors, including the perception among voters (not shared by all orgs) that Becerra was a stalwart progressive.
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Ben Paviour retweeted
Jun 10
Why Tom Steyer’s $215 million campaign fell short in California governor race sacbee.com/news/politics-gov…
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Jun 9
If the 50k forecast holds, Steyer may have been a Tony Thurmond or Ramsey Robinson away from making it to the general election. (i know it's not actually that simple)
🚨🗳️CA GOV 6/9 UPDATE
Now reporting 7.9M votes for Governor 83% counted which suggests 1.66M remains to be counted. Forecast is Steyer will close to ~50k deficit.
Important to note that not every county reports every day. Fresno and Ventura last report was June 4th, so 5 days ago and those are Hilton counties. Likewise Sonoma and Contra Costa have not reported since June 5th and Steyer will pick up there. Yesterday Alameda and Los Angeles had big numbers that boosted Steyer. Today should bring more Democratic votes tallied, but it should also bring positive numbers for Hilton in Orange, Ventura, Fresno, Placer and San Luis Obispo.
Yesterday Steyer gained 87k from about 1.0M ballots. Recall his target to pass Hilton was 120k net per 1.0M. He trails by 216k and his current gain target is now 130k per 1.0M. Current estimate is Steyer finishes behind Hilton by ~50k votes based on post-election trends.
Counties with most votes to count, full list of all counties pasted below:
Los Angeles 182k
Riverside 181k
Sacramento 154k
Orange 99k
Ventura 91k
Sonoma 86k
Fresno 81k
San Mateo 69k
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Jun 8
The NY Times is out with a story about how the Trump admin and Kash Patel specifically pressured Virginia prosecutors into investigating Trump’s political rivals. nytimes.com/2026/06/08/us/po…
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Jun 6
The AP has called it for Becerra, marking a stunning turnaround for a politician who struggled to gain traction for much of the race. sacbee.com/news/politics-gov…
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Steyer is chasing second in the governor’s race. The math isn’t on his side sacbee.com/news/politics-gov…
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Jun 3
Madrid on why Mahan failed to take off in the midst of Trump 2.0: “The way I’d characterize it is, nobody wants to be told the foundation of their house has a crack in it while it’s on fire. Put out the fire first and then we’ll get to what else is wrong.”
Jun 3
I talked to @madrid_mike @LorenaSGonzalez and @danschnur about Steyer’s odds of moving forward, why Porter and Mahan’s campaigns stalled, and whether Becerra represents something new for California Dems or the status quo.
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Jun 3
I talked to @madrid_mike @LorenaSGonzalez and @danschnur about Steyer’s odds of moving forward, why Porter and Mahan’s campaigns stalled, and whether Becerra represents something new for California Dems or the status quo.
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Here is a somewhat "wow" number. Riverside County - one of CA's largest - estimates 323,000 votes remain to be counted, presumably on top of the 268,000 counted as of 4am. If that's right, the county is estimating 588,000 votes cast, 41% turnout, vs the 37% the AP is asuming.
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Jun 3
But his plan was bulletproof amp.sacbee.com/news/politics…
👀👀 Barack D. Obama Shaw way behind in first drop. We'll see if he can build on his 790 votes as the night goes on
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NEW: @XavierBecerra could well be California’s next governor.
So who is he?
The Becerra that emerged from 50 interviews: a career pol who analyzes and analyzes — then sticks to his decision, even if it frustrates. Our story here
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Xavier Becerra's campaign threatening to sue Tom Steyer if he refuses to take down this ad.
May 31
Becerra, Steyer trade legal threats over attack ad days before primary sacbee.com/news/politics-gov…
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May 30
“You’d be forgiven for assuming that Tom Lackey — a former CA state trooper, GOP lawmaker and member of the LDS Church — isn’t a fan of scofflaw rapper Afroman…You’d be forgiven, but you’d be wrong.” -@AndrewGraham88
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May 29
An early backer of Obama in the 2008 primary is spending heavily in CA’s lieutenant governor race boosting Michael Tubbs and attacking Fiona Ma. He single-handedly outspent Tubbs’ own campaign 6x in the most recent cycle.
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Ben Paviour retweeted
May 27
Good @BPaves look at issues with some of @TomSteyer real estate investments
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May 27
Tom Steyer has taken aim at "corporate landlords" he accuses of profiting from California's housing crisis. But his tax filings show he's an investor in apartment complexes that have hiked fees/rent and faced maintenance issues.
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May 26
The United Farm Workers built its political power around Chavez. Now it faces a reckoning, via @mathewjmiranda
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May 26
Unchanged since at least 2009, per Wayback Machine.
May 26
very few websites left that make me feel like I'm time traveling... the California Secretary of State's campaign finance system is one of them
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May 26
Republican Chad Bianco says Trump's endorsement of Steve Hilton is a liability in California, and he'll be the candidate to win over Dems and independents, per @FresnoBee fresnobee.com/news/politics-…
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