From @DroversCTN, @USDA confirmed the sample from a cattle ranch near La Pryor, Texas, is screwworm. It's a threat the U.S. hasn't faced in 60 years. You can read more about the confirmed case here: drovers.com/news/new-world-s…

Where does the opportunity for $17B of non-soy ag exports to #China lie? Below is a look at the breakdown by category over the span of 2021-23, during which non-soy ag exports averaged a similar ~$17.5B. It's also worth pointing out how anomalous this stretch was; the average non-soy ag export value from 2010-2020 was only $8.7B, and 2025 fell to $5.3B (check out my graphic from yesterday). Bottom line: it's possible, but the path likely requires a broad-based increase across multiple categories rather than one single commodity carrying the load. #oatt #corn #soybeans #cotton

A dive into what we know so far about potential Chinese purchase commitments of US ag products following last week's Trump/Xi summit, as well as a look at how these figures compare historically. #oatt Link to video: youtube.com/watch?v=1Vp8uvAB…

RT @ASA_Soybeans: ASA Statement on House Passage of Year-Round E15 Legislation:

FFA Elite, MI Judge Tegan Simmons Ch(lt cross) Brody Herman - Albright Swine Farm sire: Wide Awake(PBG) Res(dk cross) Harper Yoder - Brockman sire: World Wide(PBG) 3(duroc) Briann Scrudder - Butts Farms sire: Over the Limit(bedeker) 4(berk) Kaiser Albright - Albright sire: To the Moon(333) 5(york) Cooper Ostrom - Ostrom Show Stock Sire: No Hesitation(top cut)

Steve Swafford Memorial, MI Judge Dane Roberston Ch(lt cross) Parker Elchinger - Albright Sire: Clout(PBG) Res(dk cross) Brody Herman - Albright Sire: Wide Awake(PBG) 3(spot) Kylsee Jaworski - AcMoody Showpigs sire: Imagine(Shaffer) 4(duroc) jetty Jaworski - Joostberns Sire: All That(PBG) 5(berk) Alexa Graham - Albright Sire: Up the Chain(Shaffer)

A look at #USDA's first '26/'27 US #corn, #soybean, #wheat production estimates compared to historicals. Biggest standout is the sharply lower than expected US #wheat production at only 1.561 bbu. If realized, this would be the smallest US #wheat crop since 1972. #oatt #oott

Absolutely fantastic piece about why beef prices are so high. Contrary to what many people may surmise, it's not the meatpackers getting margin right now. It's the actual ranchers, who are benefitting from an overall scarcity of calves bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-…

With fresh escalations in the Middle East, we're seeing a return to rapid money flow between stocks & commodities (perceived safe haven), much like early in the war. Here is a 1-minute chart of today's trade, July '26 #corn vs. stocks (S&P 500) flipped upside down. #oatt #oott

Midwest Exposure, IN Ring B Judge Hunter Langholff Gilts Ch(cross) Mya Holderly - JD Sire: Mainline(Halphen) Res(cross) Emily Meyers - Newhouse sire: Blowin Smoke(Upperhand) 3(chester) Rudy Hansen - Wintex sire: self aware(hook) 4(hamp) Brody Everhart - Heimer sire: pledge(Heimer) 5(berk) Kaiser Albright - Albright sire: To the Moon(333) Barrow Ch(cross) Catie Holmes - JD sire: Mainline(Halphen) Res(cross) Parker Elchinger - Albright sire: Clout(PBG) 3(duroc) Riley Hayden - Rodibaugh sire: Bank on It(Purple Power) 4(chester) Hawk Family - Thayer sire: WD40(Purple Power) 5(duroc) Hudson Bell - Schippert Sire: All American(purple power)

Midwest Exposure, IN Judge Miles Toenyes Ring 1 Gilts Ch(cross) Mya Holderly - JD Sire: mainline(Halphen) Res(cross) Tensley Bowman 3(hamp)Brody Everhart - Heimer sire:pledge(heimer) 4(Chester) Rudy Hansen - Wintex sire: self aware(hook) 5 Barrow Ch(cross) Catie Holmes - JD Sire: Mainline(Halphen) Res(cross)Brody Herman - Albright sire: Wide Awake(PBG) 3(Chester) Hawk Family - Thayer sire: WD40(Purple Power) 4(duroc) Riley Hayden - Rodibaugh sire: bank on it(Purple Power) 5(berk) Hudson Van Meter - Atkins Sire: To the Moon(333)

India has confirmed that they are purchasing 2.5M tons of urea which removes a LOT of tons from the market. Strait is slammed shut as Iran attacked ships. How insane has the back and forth headlines been? NOLA urea has moved its price $330 (up and down) since last Tuesday.

Maybe the most interesting note from today's NOPA Crush report--implied monthly domestic #soybean oil disappearance jumps 433M month-on-month to reach a new all-time high 2.685B lbs. Hence, #soybean oil stocks of 2.039B came in well below market expectations. #oatt #oott

Updated corn/fertilizer ratio charts. Still not great looks for farmers. Urea - 2nd highest ever, highest ever this time of year UAN - 2nd highest ever, highest ever this time of year Phosphate - highest ever this time of year Potash - remains WELL PRICED AND WELL SUPPLIED!!

USDA raised its domestic #wheat ending stocks by 7 million to 938 million bushels, while leaving #corn and #soybean stocks unchanged. #oatt

N.A. farmers are in good shape for spring fertilizer. Potash - everything should be in place Phosphate - everything should be in place NH3 - most demand is met by domestic production UAN - most demand is met by domestic production Urea - of the 5 - 5.5M import needed, 3.5M already lined up thru March

If you have not had a conversation with your supplier about spring fertilizer needs, make it a priority. The attacks on Qatar/Iran gas production caused urea to jump another 5 - 7% overnight. I am more worried about supplies than price today... This is real.

We are about to the 2 week anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed. What has fertilizer done? NOLA Urea - 36% higher NOLA UAN - 23% higher Midwest NH3 - 13% higher NOLA DAP - 2% higher However, important to note that NOLA nitrogen and phosphate is "cheap" vs world.

Very boring March #WASDE overall with the biggest surprise being the 3.77 MMT uptick in world #corn ending stocks to 292.75 MMT (top-end est. was 291.0 MMT). This wasn’t really driven by the production side though (total up only 1.53 MMT from Feb). Argentina/Brazil offset each other, Ukraine saw the biggest increase ( 1.7 MMT) to now sit at 30.7 MMT. The biggest change, however, was a combined 2 MMT cut in #Brazil domestic #corn demand (-1.5 MMT in ‘24/’25, -0.5 MMT in ‘25/’26). This led to a notable uptick in Brazil’s ‘25/’26 #corn ending stocks to 5.96 MMT (~234.6 mbu), up from 3.68 MMT (~144.9 mbu) in Feb and accounted for the majority of the increase at the world level. #oatt

With all happening with global fertilizer, it might be time to consider fertilizer futures. The CME has a 10-ton NOLA urea futures contract designed with farmers in mind. CME code - MFV Have a conversation with your broker. If they need details, have them reach out to me.