@Barton_options profile picture
BɅRTON @Barton_options

PhD. Swing trader in index options, Fed watcher. Tweets reflect my personal observations. No investment advice. No medical advice.

Joined January 2014
  • Tweets 15,220
  • Following 248
  • Followers 34,540
1,595 Photos and videos
SPY up 9.5%, QQQ up 12% today? Congrats, you just got a hella hit of intermittent reinforcement — the dark psychology that keeps people hooked. 🎰📈
2
44
4,864
This is only the 2nd inning, folks. Using the 2008 analogy, right now is the March weekend when Bear Sterns collapsed, and the Fed had to step in to intervene. But primary dealers are okay. GSIBs are okay. There will be NO monday-premarket 75bps emergency rate cut this time.
11
6
152
24,885
"Out of control #starship8". Taken in Miami, FL around 640pm ET Not too dissimilar to the stonks.
0:19
6
27
6,577
The betting market agreed with me too quickly. Time for additional contrarian opinions on superconductors: 1. high-quality (convincing) data and sample will take times (>>10 days). 60 days are more likely. The fog of war will prevail for a while. 2. most existing superconductor researchers (mostly physicists, materials scientists to a lesser degree) are very bitter now. Consider their emotional bias, before taking their opinions too seriously. 3. The low-hanging fruits (bets with the highest ROI in the 2-3 year time frame) will be in mundane applications that are already ubiquitous. Forget about nuclear fusion, quantum computers etc (none of these will make money in the next 10 years) I will expand on all these points tomorrow, especially on point no.3
23
3
48
28,158
In the meantime, $AMSC will probably become the new GME. Skyrocketing first due to its name, before dropping to 0, since it has zero patent related to LK-99.
12
2
30
8,804
The superconductor candidate last week, LK-99, looks like a GAME CHANGER.
7
9
68
27,672
more replies
It will take materials scientists a few months to fully settle the question on whether LK-99 contains room-temperature (RT) superconductors. But even if it were not, this new material should give enough hints for genuine RT superconductors to be synthesized soon after.
5
1
22
8,372
You probably want to reposition your portfolio to take this possibility into account .
5
27
6,451
We now know who was the biggest user of the Discount Window (90-day loan facility at the Fed): FRC. When FDIC took over, $58Bn of those were reclassified as Other credit extensions. and JPM closed some positions. Overall Fed's balance sheet did not expand from FRC failure.
5
3
46
11,535
PACW has only $4Bn of UST/MBS and WAL has $3Bn of MBS. Should they fail, the increase in Fed's balance sheet would be negligible Since a portion of the liquidity from TGA (debt ceiling) is going into Overnight Reverse Repo, the liquidity tailwind for May is only about $100-150Bn
2
14
4,326
The whales that would have moved the needle are WFC ($350Bn) and BAC ($850Bn). But they are probably too big to fail in the foreseeable future.
2
15
3,840
The unintended consequence of current BTFP setup is that it incentivize people to start bank runs to push up the value of their TQQQ/SPXL positions. BAC is sitting on $~1T of MBS. I am sure wallstreetbet folks are eager to throw it under the bus any time now. /s
1
3
22
7,324
Every FDIC seizure of a bank of the scale of FRC is equivalent to an immediate $100-150Bn QE on Fed's balance sheet within a day or two (via special loans) Stealth QE5 via monthly bank failure. What an interesting time.
Rishi Mishra
@aRishisays
29 Apr 2023
JPMorgan Chase & Co. and PNC Financial Services Group Inc. are vying to buy First Republic Bank
8
21
118
63,920
Bullish for equities in 1-2 week time frame (ignoring all other factors)
1
1
22
4,914
From the way the Fed does weekly averages, one can deduct the following: 1. banks (SVB etc) have kept their discount window usage constant. (weekly average ~ 1/2 of Wed close) 2. banks are easing into BTFP (weekly average << 1/2 of Wed close)
1
2
25
7,116
Expect BTFP balance to grow a lot more from here, while the discount window balance to wind down a bit in the next few weeks.
2
3
23
4,695
Load more