US DEBT INTEREST COSTS HIT $1.3 TRILLION, EXCEED MILITARY SPENDING

I posted this earlier in the week on @RealVision, but thought it was worth sharing here as well, just to give everyone something to think about. If you step back and look at the data, something interesting is happening in markets right now… When you line up liquidity with equities, you get this (chart 1).   And then compare that with the same liquidity measure versus Bitcoin (chart 2), a simple truth emerges: Both cannot be right...   Either equities are fundamentally mispricing liquidity despite trading near record highs, or Bitcoin is correctly signaling that the liquidity cycle has already peaked and that risk assets are about to roll over. Only one of these outcomes can ultimately be correct.   Now let’s separate data from opinion for a moment...   The data is clear: Global liquidity has not yet peaked.   Now to my subjective view…   I think Bitcoin remains the outlier here, and that the events around 10/10 temporarily distorted price discovery, for reasons I’ve discussed at length previously.    Equities, credit, and broader risk assets are behaving exactly as you would expect in a rising liquidity regime. They’re hovering near all-time highs...   Bitcoin, by contrast, is pricing a liquidity peak that the data simply does not support at this stage.   At some point you have to step back and ask: Is it more likely that one asset is right, or that every other BTC-correlated risk asset is wrong (chart 3)?   If you then layer in broader financial conditions, it stops being about opinion and becomes more about probabilities (chart 4). What really stands out to me is the sheer magnitude of the “Excess Fear Gaps” that have opened up relative to the macro and liquidity fundamentals.   Right now, the weight of the evidence suggests liquidity is still rising and, in our view, will continue to rise, and that is what risk assets are reflecting.   That means Bitcoin is the anomaly.   What I’ve done here is present the data objectively and my view subjectively.   This is the battlefield for 2026.   The bull versus bear debate comes down to one thing and one thing only: The direction of global liquidity...

A trillion dollar net worth sounds like a lot at face value. But here’s how I view it as a CFP® Professional: After accounting for 14 children, future tuition inflation, and a few Mars relocations, the retirement projections can get surprisingly tight.

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…

THIS IS AURORA ✦ Mach 3.7 ✦ 100 km altitude ✦ Up to 127 seconds of microgravity ✦ Runway takeoff and landing ✦ Four-hour turnaround #suborbital #spaceplane #aurora

The best in the world operate off pure intuition. You can only read so much. You can only think so much. Ask anyone who is the best of the best in their field how they do it and they can't give an answer. They are not being humble or secretive. They themselves do not know. Magnus always talks about how he is a poor chess player by theory standards, but he just has one-in-a-billion intuition for middle and endgames. The best traders in the world are not the smartest, they don't have the best models. They somehow just know where to allocate capital. Same for best researchers, best designers, best athletes, etc. Of course, this does not mean that they do not work hard. Really, most of this intuition *comes from* the hours in the dark where they themselves were in the dark; learning to traverse the idea-tree independently. To gain the intuition, you need both hours and blessings. "No amount of money poured into physics could have ever gotten you Special Relativity, only an Einstein daydreaming at a Swiss patent shop" - @iamgingertrash