on-chain, off-trend.

Joined May 2023
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i just researched 32 active IDOs in one shot for $0.30 here's what i built, what i found, and the stupid mistake i almost made đŸ§” asked Claude Code to scrape CryptoRank and pull every live IDO : raise, FDV, MCap, vesting, launchpad, investors, the whole thing structured it into a tracker. translated everything. added analysis on each project took about 20 minutes total $0.30 in tokens but here's the part that actually hurt my soul i was about to pay for CryptoRank's API then Claude Code found that every single data point is already sitting in the page HTML inside <script id="__NEXT_DATA__"> — Next.js just dumps the full JSON there for the browser to hydrate no auth. no API key. no rate limits. just a GET request and parse i would've paid for something that was free the whole time anyway here's what i found after going through all 32 projects the market is cooked with bad tokenomics rn most IDOs have Raise/FDV under 2% meaning: the project raises $300K, sets FDV at $60M, and calls it fair you're not early. you're exit liquidity. the red flags i kept seeing: * team allocation 2-3x higher than public sale * FDV/MCap ratios above 20x (some hitting 144x) * "ecosystem fund" holding 60-70% of supply with zero explanation * no investors disclosed on a $40M FDV project if they won't tell you who backed them, you already know the answer the few that actually looked interesting: OpenDelta - Anatoly Yakovenko 6th Man Ventures backing, yield-bearing token protocol. tokenomics not disclosed yet but the backer list is real Drake (Monad) - CMS Holdings in. perp DEX thesis on Monad makes sense. waiting for full terms before touching it Friendly Giant AI - 31% raise/FDV ratio, best number in the whole list. still early but at least the math isn't insulting full tracker 32 projects, all numbers, full analysis: docs.google.com/spreadsheets
 free. take it. the tool i built spits out: ✓ raise vs FDV ratio (the only number that matters) ✓ MCap/FDV gap = future sell pressure ✓ team vs public sale imbalance ✓ vesting cliff risks ✓ investor quality score (or absence of one) one spreadsheet. every project. color coded. i'm not a VC i don't get allocations i just refuse to go in blind if you can code a little use AI properly, you can build your own edge in 20 minutes for less than a cup of coffee that's the whole point
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Spain had 74% possession and took 27 shots. They scored 0 goals. Cape Verde committed 1 foul the entire game - the fewest in a World Cup match since 1966. One of Spain’s forwards didn’t touch the ball for the first 30 minutes. That also hadn’t happened since 1966. Final score: 0-0. Cape Verde, a country with fewer than 500,000 people, was playing in their first-ever World Cup match
 and they just took a point off the European champions. Their 40-year-old goalkeeper, Vozinha, faced 7 shots on target and saved all of them. Before the game he had around 50k Instagram followers. He now has over 1,8 million. Football is undefeated.
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Did anyone else predict a 7:1 score in the Germany - Curaçao match?
Germany vs Curaçao. We're expecting a thrashing. I'm not a huge football fan but I can't miss the World Cup. Germany has a very well-drilled squad. Their defense hasn't changed even in friendlies. From right to left: Kimmich, Tah, Schlotterbeck, Brown — that's a concrete wall in defense. The attack is probably Germany's weaker area compared to defense, but for Curaçao what they have is more than enough. Either a standard 4-0 or 5-0, or a more crushing 6-1 or even 7-1. Though of course I'm rooting more for the underdog Curaçao.
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Germany vs Curaçao. We're expecting a thrashing. I'm not a huge football fan but I can't miss the World Cup. Germany has a very well-drilled squad. Their defense hasn't changed even in friendlies. From right to left: Kimmich, Tah, Schlotterbeck, Brown — that's a concrete wall in defense. The attack is probably Germany's weaker area compared to defense, but for Curaçao what they have is more than enough. Either a standard 4-0 or 5-0, or a more crushing 6-1 or even 7-1. Though of course I'm rooting more for the underdog Curaçao.
Jun 14
Replying to @camolNFT
MATCH 1: Germany đŸ‡©đŸ‡Ș vs Curaçao đŸ‡šđŸ‡Œ Germany is gonna dominate. There's no way around it, but I think Curacao is better than people think, and the odds at 2% are very interesting to me. This game means EVERYTHING to Curacao, as they're going against one of the best. - Both teams to score - Over 3.5 goals
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The match isn't that straightforward. Brazil's defensive flanks aren't strong enough — Danilo and Alex Sandro. Meanwhile, Morocco's attacking flanks are their strongest side — Brahim Diaz and Saibari. Brazil has a world-class attack led by Vini and Raphinha, but Morocco's defense with Mazroui and Hakimi isn't a gift either. A bit of bad luck for Brazil and a bit of luck for Morocco, and we could see an unpredictable result.
Brasil, Brasil A seleção chegou!! Vini JĂșnior Raphinha Alisson Casemiro MilitĂŁo Marquinhos Fabinho Alex Sandro PaquetĂĄ Wesley Cabeção Matheus Cunha Martinelli Endrick Respeita o manto O rei voltou Neymar, Neymar, Neymar, Neymar đŸ‡§đŸ‡·đŸ‡§đŸ‡·đŸ‡§đŸ‡·
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Today Anthropic restricted foreign access to Fable 5. The only ones genuinely happy about it are the Indians. Who’s first to guess why? Reply with your answer wallet address. First correct one gets $10.
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt

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Boson Protocol is among today's top daily gainers, and over the past week $BOSON is up around 94%. The project has been live since 2021, currently trades roughly 99% below its all-time high, with a market cap near $7M. ⠀ The move has a fundamental driver. On June 8 the team launched x402B mainnet, payment infrastructure for the agentic economy. This is a real product and a real catalyst, and the market responded with a rally. I have not yet found onchain confirmation of revenue from this activity, but I have already asked the team and I am waiting for their answer. I want to see the specific contract address where x402B revenue flows, and I will be tracking it. ⠀ The team's consistency is worth noting. The lineup has not changed since 2021, which in my view speaks for the project rather than against it. Over five years they keep building and shipping products to launch. ⠀ There is a tokenomics nuance worth naming honestly. Treasury wallets periodically move $BOSON onto exchanges. Most likely this funds operations and team salaries from previously raised capital and token sales. It creates steady pressure on the price. That said, no sharp dumps have been observed from the team. ⠀ Liquidity is a mixed picture. The Uniswap pool is growing, driven by a few larger wallets, but in absolute terms it is still small - around $62K, with daily volume near $40K. For the project that is modest for now. ⠀ An important caveat on the onchain analysis. It is limited by the fact that most of the action runs through centralized exchanges, with little activity on DEX. But the team and treasury wallets we tracked are not involved in this pump at all - neither in dumping nor in moving the token in any way. ⠀ The picture looks very much like the price moving on the product launch news itself. For a project with a live team and a fresh mainnet, that is a rather positive signal. What happens next comes down to real x402B usage. Transaction volume is exactly what I will be watching in the coming weeks. One last point. A small-cap token rising on a real event, rather than on speculation aimed at unloading onto the crowd, is a rare thing in this market. That alone makes Boson worth keeping an eye on.
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Strange that no one wanted to pay $400 for a post with 100 stable views
 🧐
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320k active addresses. 300k of them are agent addresses. Am I right?
Users up. Liquidity up. Revenue up. $BASE is firing on all cylinders. đŸ”„ @base by the numbers (DeFiLlama): → DEX Volume (24h): $1.345B → TVL: $4.008B → Bridged TVL: $12.618B → Perps Volume (24h): $162.16M → App Fees (24h): $1.86M → App Revenue (24h): $779.85K Base is just growing & people are actually using it. → 320k active addresses → $1.3B DEX volume → $4.8B stablecoins - That’s real activity. 👀 - One day everyone will ask why they faded Base.
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3 days ago crypto Twitter buried Zcash. ⠀ The Orchard bug. “Funds aren’t safe.” “You can’t trust it.” “Monero is the only real privacy coin.” Everyone called it dead. ⠀ 3 days
 ⠀ ZEC is already back near $7.8B. Green. And the same timelines that wrote the obituary moved on like nothing happened. ⠀ Here’s what actually happened. ⠀ The bug was disclosed, patched, and hard forked in days. No funds stolen. No counterfeit detected. Textbook incident response. ⠀ And the price still got cut almost in half. ⠀ That gap is the whole lesson. The size of the panic had nothing to do with the size of the problem. ⠀ Somebody needed to sell. A big somebody. Arthur Hayes publicly dumped his entire bag and called the trade dead. ⠀ The news didn’t crash the price. The news gave permission to the people who were already leaving. ⠀ You sold them fear. They sold you their bags. Token recovered. Same as always. ⠀ And before you treat news as some sacred signal, remember the other side. ⠀ Xiaomi, the third largest phone maker on earth, is putting a Sei wallet on every new device outside China and the US. Hundreds of millions of phones. One of the strongest adoption catalysts you could write. ⠀ Price barely moved. ⠀ So bullish news gets ignored and bearish news gets weaponized. The news isn’t driving the market. The market decides which news matters, then writes the story to fit. ⠀ Isn’t “ignore everything.” ⠀ Be the one reading the move, not the one being moved. Think for yourself. Keep your critical thinking on, no matter whose analysis you’re reading. ⠀ Including mine.
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The only project on my watchlist that didn’t pump with the market is $LFI. Shame, because it’s a real conservative business, founder spent a decade in institutional finance. ⠀ But it launched into Bankr on Base. That crowd doesn’t want 6% in dollars. They want 60x «by Friday».
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$UNI vs $HYPE. An honest buyback & burn comparison. ⠀ Uniswap. The protocol does around $600M in fees a year. But the fee switch only turned on in December 2025, and it is not live on every pool yet. The mechanism is still ramping. The actual burn right now is modest. Around $15–30M a year. That is 6–12M UNI. About 1% of market cap. Separately: in December it burned 100M UNI from the treasury in one shot. Almost $600M. That single event outweighs a full year of Hyperliquid buybacks. ⠀ Hyperliquid. The protocol does around $1.3B in fees a year. 97–99% goes straight into buyback & burn of $HYPE. That is 12–17M HYPE a year. About 5–7% of market cap. Every single year. ⠀ The gap in current flow is massive. Right now HYPE burns 40–80x more in dollar terms. HYPE also trades about 25x higher than UNI. And it is still far more aggressive on buybacks. ⠀ But the real story is not the numbers. It is the structure. ⠀ On Uniswap, the burn fee comes straight out of LP pockets. Raise the take, LP yield drops, and liquidity flees to Aerodrome, Velodrome, Raydium. Less liquidity means worse execution, lower volume, weaker burn. A vicious loop. So Uniswap can only grow its burn by growing volume. It cannot just carve a bigger slice from LPs. They leave. ⠀ Hyperliquid has none of this. It is an integrated exchange. The fee is the house take, not a tax on someone else's liquidity. Nobody to appease. 97% goes to buybacks by default. ⠀ Base case. Uniswap volume grows ×2–3, more pools switched on. Burn climbs to $50–80M a year. About 2–4% of market cap. Still half as strong as HYPE. ⠀ Bull case. Volume ×5–8 while keeping liquidity. Burn hits $150–300M a year. 10–20% of market cap. The gap shrinks to 5–10x. But that needs a multiple in volume, not a higher fee. And the LPs have to stay. ⠀ That is the real question. HYPE has buybacks baked into the model. UNI runs into its LPs. Who actually believes Uniswap catches HYPE without scaling liquidity instead of milking it?
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gm Fam $ALLO played out 100% according to yesterday’s take. Position fully closed. Went against the social narrative on the token and have zero regrets. Thanks everyone for the attention and support ❀
Gm fam I’m maintaining a measured optimism on $ALLO. Buying ✅ I hope this is very short-term, as I don’t want to hold the position for long. Even though longs currently dominate and long liquidation zones are closer, I still see more upside in this trade than downside. $0.30 is a solid entry price.
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There's no more useful film for anyone in crypto than The Gambler. None. ⠀ If you haven't seen it, stop here. Spoiler ahead. ⠀ The ending. Mark Wahlberg walks out of the casino and runs across the whole city. No words. Outro by M83 playing over it. He just won everything back and cleared every debt. He could have stayed in. He could have grabbed more. He just walked away. ⠀ I never had his addiction. The risk doesn't get me high. The trade itself doesn't make my hands shake. But I've caught myself doing other things. Holding a position long after I should have closed it. Averaging into something that no longer deserves it. Seeing that a trade is rotten and still feeling the money pull so hard I can't look away. ⠀ I always stopped. Always. Even when everything inside me was screaming to keep going. But I know how hard it is. ⠀ So when I see someone actually drowning, pouring deposit after deposit into futures, aping into a garbage token because the picture looked nice, I feel it in my skin. ⠀ And this isn't only about crypto. It's about a relationship, a job, any process where you've been destroying yourself for a long time and can't walk out. If that's where you are right now, you already know it's time but something still pulls you back, watch this scene. It lets you feel the relief that comes when you finally leave.
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I have never understood people who set up their workspace in a dark room without windows, filled with neon and other artificial nonsense. My view from the window of my workspace right now. This inspires me. To be, not to seem.
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Gm fam I’m maintaining a measured optimism on $ALLO. Buying ✅ I hope this is very short-term, as I don’t want to hold the position for long. Even though longs currently dominate and long liquidation zones are closer, I still see more upside in this trade than downside. $0.30 is a solid entry price.
$ALLO right now is a pretty clean example of how shorts get squeezed. Over the last few days, the token from the Allora project went up hard. More than 200% in just a few days, and around 128% in the last 24 hours alone. It’s clearly a speculative move. Basically, someone saw that there were way too many shorts on the market and decided to push them out. It didn’t even require that much money, so it happened pretty easily. The project itself still looks solid. From the bottom, the token is already up more than 8x. We’re currently sitting about 48% below its all-time high. The chart since the launch back in November 2025 looks like the token was just sitting in a wide range for a long time, kind of trapped between two walls. There wasn’t really any strong accumulation visible. So this recent pump isn’t because someone was quietly buying for months. It’s more like smart money just spotted an opportunity and took it. If you look at the futures charts , the picture becomes clearer. At first, the price and open interest were rising together. Then open interest started lagging while the price kept going up. This usually means the move is mostly driven by shorts getting liquidated. When those positions get forced closed, the price spikes. What’s even more interesting is the positioning. Regular traders are heavily skewed to the short side -on some exchanges there are almost twice as many shorts as longs. But if you look only at the big players on Binance (the top 20% by account size), the situation is different. By number of accounts, shorts are still more, but when you look at the actual size of their positions, longs are already winning. So the people with real money are starting to bet against the crowd. Trading volume has also cooled down a lot compared to May 30, when over $3 billion was traded in a single day. Now it’s much lower. We’re moving in impulses rather than on steady new buying. There’s almost no strong news around the project right now. Twitter and everywhere else is pretty quiet. So it’s still unclear where the price will go after this short squeeze is over. To be honest, I only recently started paying attention to this token. By the time I noticed it, it had already run up quite a bit. That’s why I didn’t catch the beginning of this move. If I had seen it earlier, I would’ve been in already. Today just wasn’t my lucky day. Overall, I like this move more than most pumps lately. It doesn’t feel dirty - it’s just classic mechanics where too many people were short and someone decided to squeeze them. That said, I’m still not ready to enter at current prices. I’d prefer to see a small pullback, maybe down to the $0.35–0.38 area, and then think about going long from there. If the big players start closing their longs, I also don’t want to fight against them. Right now, between long and short, I lean toward long - but only after a small dip. Let’s see how it plays out.
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$ALLO right now is a pretty clean example of how shorts get squeezed. Over the last few days, the token from the Allora project went up hard. More than 200% in just a few days, and around 128% in the last 24 hours alone. It’s clearly a speculative move. Basically, someone saw that there were way too many shorts on the market and decided to push them out. It didn’t even require that much money, so it happened pretty easily. The project itself still looks solid. From the bottom, the token is already up more than 8x. We’re currently sitting about 48% below its all-time high. The chart since the launch back in November 2025 looks like the token was just sitting in a wide range for a long time, kind of trapped between two walls. There wasn’t really any strong accumulation visible. So this recent pump isn’t because someone was quietly buying for months. It’s more like smart money just spotted an opportunity and took it. If you look at the futures charts , the picture becomes clearer. At first, the price and open interest were rising together. Then open interest started lagging while the price kept going up. This usually means the move is mostly driven by shorts getting liquidated. When those positions get forced closed, the price spikes. What’s even more interesting is the positioning. Regular traders are heavily skewed to the short side -on some exchanges there are almost twice as many shorts as longs. But if you look only at the big players on Binance (the top 20% by account size), the situation is different. By number of accounts, shorts are still more, but when you look at the actual size of their positions, longs are already winning. So the people with real money are starting to bet against the crowd. Trading volume has also cooled down a lot compared to May 30, when over $3 billion was traded in a single day. Now it’s much lower. We’re moving in impulses rather than on steady new buying. There’s almost no strong news around the project right now. Twitter and everywhere else is pretty quiet. So it’s still unclear where the price will go after this short squeeze is over. To be honest, I only recently started paying attention to this token. By the time I noticed it, it had already run up quite a bit. That’s why I didn’t catch the beginning of this move. If I had seen it earlier, I would’ve been in already. Today just wasn’t my lucky day. Overall, I like this move more than most pumps lately. It doesn’t feel dirty - it’s just classic mechanics where too many people were short and someone decided to squeeze them. That said, I’m still not ready to enter at current prices. I’d prefer to see a small pullback, maybe down to the $0.35–0.38 area, and then think about going long from there. If the big players start closing their longs, I also don’t want to fight against them. Right now, between long and short, I lean toward long - but only after a small dip. Let’s see how it plays out.
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This video is already going around YouTube as a buy-the-bottom signal. And you can see why. SOPR in the bottom 5% ever. RSI fifth lowest. Crosby second lowest, only the 2018 bottom was lower. Long-term holders at an all-time high. Every oversold signal points to a reversal. But the same interview says the thing that breaks the whole thesis. Bitcoin doesn't follow the halving. Bitcoin follows M2. If that's true, none of these indicators mean anything. SOPR, RSI, Crosby show you where price has already been. That's a thermometer. It measures how oversold things are right now. It doesn't move the market. Liquidity moves the market. And M2 hasn't turned. Summer 2022 already showed how this plays out. Every signal screamed cheap in June. The real bottom didn't come until November, after FTX. Five months of chop in between that flushed everyone who bought the bottom on RSI. The right framework is right there in the video. Then it gets tossed. You don't buy the bottom off a thermometer. You buy it when liquidity turns. Watch M2.
Hey guys 👋 Going LIVE today at 10am UK time — in about half an hour 🔮 Special guest: Matt from Bitcoin Magazine Pro. We're covering Bitcoin TA, on-chain analysis and macro. Matt might be even more bullish on BTC at current prices than I am... or he might push back on where I stand. Either way, it's a great chance to hear a different perspective from a data-driven trader I've followed for years. See you in a bit! 👇 youtube.com/live/vbb9STAi_cg
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I am usually very skeptical of major crypto influencers because they talk nonsense depending on whether the market is rising or falling. However, in this case, I will fairly note that there is a certain consolidation of collective reasoning, with an attempt to calm everyone down. Respect for that. Yes, the market is red. So what? A traffic light has three colors and is not always green, guys. Everything is fine. Listen, some AI hacked a crypto protocol — in this case, Zcash. Okay, they hacked it according to the rules and no one suspected anything. It adds fuel to the fire, I agree. But do you really think the market is falling because of the news? The news is adjusted to fit the market — remember that. Let’s take gold as an example. It is the world’s largest asset by capitalization. When you buy gold shares, in theory you can exchange your virtual gold for physical gold — as if you own real gold. But that physical gold does not exist. The entire sane world knows this today. And it knew it 10 years ago, 20 years ago, and so on. Does this stop the price of gold from rising? No, it does not. But tomorrow, when it becomes necessary, they will conduct an audit, discover that there is not that much gold, and declare it a bubble — and the price of gold will collapse. But this will be news adjusted to fit the market crash exactly when it is needed. Because the gold is not there even today. And everyone knows it. Do not let panic occupy your mind — stay clear-headed. In any market there are opportunities both to make money and to lose it.
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Gm fam ☀ Market is dumping hard after Hayes sold HYPE and NEAR yesterday. ZEC had an exploit in Orchard - already patched, but those tokens still dropped harder than the rest of the market. I’m keeping my positions open and transparent: - Long HYPE with small leverage. Liquidation at $46.8. - No leverage on ZEC, Ondo, and TAO. Liquidations are far away. It’s easy to give up and go full negative in this red zone. But I’m staying positive-minded, and here’s why. On HYPE I’m strongly bullish - Hyperliquid is a real working perp DEX that thousands of traders are already using, the product is growing and taking market share. ZEC after the quick bug fix still has privacy as its core edge, and the team showed they can fix issues fast. Ondo is one of the leading stories in real-world assets with institutional interest. TAO is decentralized AI, one of the strongest long-term narratives on the market. The market is currently flushing out weak hands and excess leverage. It’s painful, but healthy for projects with real value. I’m managing risk, believe in these tokens for the long haul, and not panicking. How is everyone viewing the situation? What are you holding?
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Many people don’t know this, and even those who do often don’t fully understand it. Today I’ll explain a paradoxical but very common situation in low-liquidity altcoins. Let’s use $OPN as an example. Looking at the screenshot below, you can see that spot sales have consistently outweighed purchases on every timeframe since the token launched. This raises an obvious question: How can the price rise over 120% if there have been more sellers than buyers on the spot market the entire time? The answer is simple: On altcoins with relatively small market caps, the futures market often dictates the price direction. Even if spot sales significantly exceed purchases, aggressive buying on futures (especially with leverage) can push the price higher. Here’s how it typically works: - Many traders open short positions expecting the price to drop. - When the price starts rising , those shorts begin to get liquidated. - Short liquidation = forced buying at market price. - This creates a powerful upward cascade. As a result, the price climbs sharply even while many spot holders are taking profits. This phenomenon is known as a Short Squeeze Pump. $OPN still has a relatively modest market capitalization. That’s why even a few million dollars flowing into futures can trigger a 50–150% price surge in a short period. Understanding the difference between spot flows and futures flows is one of the most important edges when trading altcoins. Save this if you found it useful.
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