Confirming the post I made Friday on the
$SATS /
$ASTS proxy unwind - it's playing out exactly as described. Friday I mentioned the entire space complex was being sold to fund direct
$SPCX buys. SATS - the purest SpaceX proxy that exists, holding $11B of actual SpaceX stock also got dumped 14% on IPO day. The logic: once you can buy the real thing, you sell the proxy.
That dynamic continued through today morning. SPCX kept climbing post-IPO. The proxy names got sold. ASTS got dragged down with them - and bounced off its lows today as buyers stepped in.
But here's the distinction that matters more every day this plays out: SATS gets sold because it genuinely IS a SpaceX proxy. Its entire value depends on SpaceX. When that trade unwinds, nothing underneath catches it.
$ASTS and other space stocks got sold by association - lumped into the same basket despite being a SpaceX competitor, not a proxy. Its catalysts have nothing to do with SpaceX: BB8-10 launches Wednesday, radar testing for the Space Force is live, Japan's J-LEO decision lands this month, $1.2B backlog, 18% short interest.
$ASTS was collateral damage in a trade that was never about it. That's not a broken thesis, that's a CLEAR mispricing. The rotation exhausts itself. What's left standing is what matters. SATS is left holding a SpaceX stake. ASTS is left with the densest independent catalyst stack of the year and it's already bouncing. Not calling the bottom. But know the difference between a broken thesis and a stock caught in someone else's trade.
Launch is in ~36 hours.
$ASTS 🛰️🚀