Robert Toczycki, JD/MBA. Patent attorney & independent biotech analyst. Author of the BioBoyScout RNAi white papers. Builder of biotech valuation tools. Chicago
Joined February 2015
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Apr 24
$ARWR trades at over $10B today.
If ARO-MAPT's Phase 1 reads positive in 2H 2026, the math says it's worth $55-$90B to a strategic acquirer.
Not a guess. Four independent methodologies. Same range.
Full paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1D5e…
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New paper: The Platform Gambit, Why Arrowhead Doesn't Need a Buyer
Most biotechs must sell. $ARWR is the rare exception: owns its mfg, has an approved drug, runs a platform deep enough to fund its own future.
The one who can walk away sets the price.
bioboyscout.com/p/the-platfo…
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Jun 8
"I don't care what sort of powerful AI engine some of these upstart companies have. If they don't have the data to feed into that engine, there's only so much they can do." -Chris Anzalone
New white paper on $ARWR #biotech #AI
bioboyscout.com/p/arrowheads…
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Jun 4
Jun 4
New white paper out: Edit the Copy, Not the Original.
DNA Editing vs. RNA Editing vs. Gene Silencing.
$LLY is right in the middle of it all.
$PRQR $WVE $ARWR
bioboyscout.com/p/edit-the-c…
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Jun 4
New white paper out: Edit the Copy, Not the Original.
DNA Editing vs. RNA Editing vs. Gene Silencing.
$LLY is right in the middle of it all.
$PRQR $WVE $ARWR
bioboyscout.com/p/edit-the-c…
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May 27
The INHBE race just reset.
$WVE's monotherapy thesis cracked in March. $ARWR's EASL data this morning closed the gap, and then some.
Combo data with tirzepatide is the piece that matters. Arrowhead has it. Wave hasn't even started its add-on trial.
bioboyscout.com/p/the-inhbe-…
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May 27
1/5 $ARWR just changed the obesity game at EASL.
ARO-INHBE isn't competing with Mounjaro. It's making it work better, and unlocking a second $50B market while doing it.
Two shots a year and it makes the best GLP-1s even better.
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May 27
4/5 And here's what kills the GLP-1 monopoly:
ARO-INHBE causes ZERO appetite suppression. Zero nausea bump. Zero GI misery.
Patients lose visceral fat without feeling sick, on a twice-yearly shot. That's the holy grail GLP-1s can never deliver alone.
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May 26
In chess terms, the Fab choice was a hypermodern move. $ARWR made the move. Years of execution turned it into a moat.
Broad patent protection now secures the best subcutaneous Fab targeting CNS for ANY kind of payload through 2045, and Arrowhead owns it.
bioboyscout.com/p/the-fab-ch…
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May 26
12/ "Permanent" is a feature only when reversible options fail. For PCSK9 — the easiest possible gene editing case — they haven't failed. They've succeeded across statins, mAbs, and siRNA. The case for irreversibility here is weaker after this readout, not stronger.
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