Joined March 2025
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Apr 11
BitcoinFairValue gives Bitcoin investors a calmer way to read the market.
We track:
• modeled fair value
• BFV Score
• cycle context
Not hype.
Not doom.
Just a clearer view of whether Bitcoin is cheap, fair, or stretched.
Follow for daily valuation signal.
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1,064
Jun 12
BFV Score: 2/100. Still deep undervaluation.
BTC is recovering from $59K — now green on the week at $63,750.
Fair value: $131,712. Deviation: -51.6%.
The model is ticking up from its floor. The signal hasn't changed.
Trust the math.
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Jun 10
BFV Score: 1/100. Deep Undervaluation.
Bitcoin is holding $61K ahead of today's CPI report.
Price: $61,324. Fair value: $131,478. Deviation: -53.4%.
Whales are accumulating. The model is near its absolute floor.
Turn on notifications.
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Bitcoin Market Intelligence — June 9, 2026
BFV Score: 1/100. Deep Undervaluation.
BTC hit $59,099 last week — worst drop since 2022.
Fair value: $131,361. Deviation: -52.2%.
Strategy bought 1,550 BTC on the dip.
Trust the math.
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BFV Score: 0/100. The model floor.
Bitcoin broke below $60,000 yesterday — first time since October 2024.
Price: $60,672. Fair value: $131,013. Deviation: -53.7%.
The model has never seen Bitcoin this cheap relative to its long-run trend.
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BFV Score: 0/100. The absolute floor of the model.
Bitcoin just tagged the 200-week moving average for the first time since 2023.
Price: $62,398. Fair value: $130,896. Deviation: -52.3%.
Every prior touch of the 200-week MA has been a generational buy.
Trust the math.
10
Bitcoin is cheaper than ~100% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 0/100, hitting the absolute floor of the model.
Price flashed below 2K to wipe out .8B in leveraged bets.
This is the most extreme undervaluation reading of the entire cycle.
Trust the math.
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May 31
Bitcoin is cheaper than 91% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 9/100, flashing deep undervaluation.
Price is holding near 3.8K amid a quiet weekend.
CME launches 24/7 crypto futures trading to meet institutional demand.
Trust the math.
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May 30
Bitcoin is cheaper than 92% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 8/100, flashing deep undervaluation.
Price is consolidating near 3K as the weekend begins.
The underwater supply is washing out the weak hands.
Trust the math.
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May 28
Bitcoin is cheaper than 93% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 7/100, signaling deep undervaluation.
Price dropped to 3K amid macro fears and geopolitical tension.
The 3K level is a critical structural floor.
Trust the math.
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May 27
Bitcoin is cheaper than 85% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 15/100, signaling deep undervaluation.
Price is sliding to 5K as traders watch for a golden cross.
The power-law model confirms this is a generational buying zone.
Trust the math.
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May 26
Bitcoin is cheaper than 81% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 19/100, signaling deep undervaluation.
Price is holding the 7K line as institutional accumulation offsets ETF outflows.
The leverage flush is complete.
Trust the math.
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May 25
Bitcoin Market Intelligence — Monday May 25
The BFV Score is 19/100, remaining in deep undervaluation.
Price: $77,467 | Fair Value: $129,624
Despite $2.26B in ETF outflows over two weeks, the $74K structural floor is holding firm.
Trust the math.
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May 24
Bitcoin is cheaper than 82% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 18/100, signaling deep undervaluation.
Price is bouncing hard off the $74,200 structural floor.
Institutions are absorbing the weekend leverage flush.
Turn on notifications.
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May 23
Bitcoin is cheaper than 88% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 12/100, signaling extreme undervaluation.
Price flushed below $75K to clear out $100M in weak longs.
The power-law model confirms this is a generational buying zone.
Trust the math.
Turn on notifications.
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May 22
Bitcoin is cheaper than 82% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 18/100, signaling deep undervaluation.
Bitcoin implied volatility just dropped to a 7-month low.
The .25 billion options expiry is trapping bears below 0K.
The spring is coiling tighter.
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May 20
Bitcoin is cheaper than 80% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 20/100, holding deep in the Accumulation Zone.
Price has reclaimed $77K after flushing out over-leveraged longs.
The structural floor is holding exactly where the model predicted.
Turn on notifications.
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May 18
Bitcoin Market Intelligence — Monday May 18
The BFV Score is 17/100, entering deep undervaluation.
Price: $76,724 | Fair Value: $128,820
Over $1.2B in leveraged longs wiped out since Friday.
The market is resetting leverage while institutions accumulate.
Trust the math.
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May 17
Bitcoin is cheaper than 79% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 21/100, remaining deep in the Accumulation Zone.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh just called Bitcoin the new gold.
The institutional framework is locked in while retail panics.
The math always wins.
Turn on notifications.
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May 16
Bitcoin is cheaper than 79% of all historical days.
The BFV Score is 21/100, holding deep in the Accumulation Zone.
The Senate just passed the CLARITY Act, clearing the regulatory overhang.
Institutions accumulate while retail panics.
The math always wins.
Turn on notifications.
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